mjkluger said:
I handicap under the assumption that it is better to KNOW how a team has performed than to be ignorant of a team's performance in various situations. The SDQL provides a way to know the facts. Certainly, the SDQL can be abused by bettors who don't understand randomness and statistical significance. However, in the hands of a person who understands risk management, it is a very powerful tool.
Without the SDQL, you're just guessing.
Dr M.
thanks for the reply. but you still aren't explaining how knowing the results of games played four years ago is helping you become more informed about a game that is played today, particularly in a sport like baseball. the 2011 team is different than the 2012 team and the 2012 team is far different than the current team. the only common thread among the last four years is the name on the jersey.
since you have a PhD, i'm sure you have written plenty of scholarly articles. if you were to attempt to write a paper on SDQL and its usefulness, particularly the way YOU are using it, what scholar would approve and agree with your belief that this stuff has relevance?
you data mined the example you gave. if you didn't, why not take it back to 2010 or 2009 or 2008, where the record improves to 6-14? what is the significance of 2011 as a starting point?
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I don't want to get into a long diatribe here about the usefulness of the SDQL.
I will say this:
When trying to forecast the future results of anything for which there is a large amount of historical results, the primary mode of forecasting is to data-mine the past results. Examples include, the stock market, the weather, human behavior and many others.
In order to predict the future, it is a good idea to look at what has happened in the past in similar situations. The SDQL allows this. Period.
If you don't believe in the usefulness of the SDQL, that OK with us. At KillerSports.com, our motto is:
"The SDQL, it's not for everyone."
Dr M.