Analysis: We may add the Brewers here (when I see their lineup) as after seeing the Phillies lineup I think the Brewers simply out score them. First of all, the roof should be wide open in Milwuakee, which is VERY helpful. Secondly, these are two very good hitting pitchers. The Phillies have given up at least four runs in five of their last six games, and if the Brewers can't get four at home off the Phillies and their anemic bullpen, they deserve to lose. Hamels did have a decent June, but a quick look of the teams he beat include Miami (twice), San Diego, Mets, Atlanta, and the Reds. Even the last couple of teams just haven't been hitting. He's given up four home runs in 16 innings at Miller park the last couple of years. Braun and Lucroy crush him. Estrada is a major flyball pitcher. In his last ten games, not once did he induce move GB outs than flyball outs, and it's not even close, really. Even if balls DO NOT leave the park (IMO they will) that cuts down on the number of DP's, possibly. But, he has given up 26 jacks in a little over 100 innings pitched this season. Milwaukee's pen the last week compiled a neat 5.40 ERA, while the Phillies road games this season have produced at 4.52 ERA with a WHIP over 1.50.
I don't know what if any we'll add. In part because I don't like a lot and in part because it's damage control when things are sliding sideways. However, here's where my head is at:
I can't take the Braves on the road against a division rival that knows Minor real well. Mets A team in and Minor gets away with flyballs in Turner Field whereas he may not in Citi Field. Because Dice can walk so many and Atlanta can clean the bases with almost anyone, I do lean over a bit, as well as the Mets to a lesser extent.
I am not going near a Reds game, period.
I don't grasp the RLM on the Pirates at all, but I am far too much of a **** to fire against it right now. With that total going up, one would ASSUME it'd be the Cardinals doing most of the scoring, so if you made me, I would buy the total back to 7 and take the over as well as the Pirates RL. Numbers don't usually lie, although they did yesterday.
A Padres game with a total over 10? Seriously, with Kennedy pitching I have to take the Padres here. They DO hit LHP much better, but Matzek looked decent last time out, so with the bullpen edge clearly with San Diego, it'd be the Padres and the under.
I really want to take Miami, and may. I just wonder if it's one game too many to go to that well. Anderson is respectable, but the Fish haven't seen him, but Koehler is just fine. So, somewhat better SP, probably better lineup, and certainly better bullpen. Fish or nothing.
The money seems to like the unknown pitcher for the Yankees, probably because they're hot. He'll be on a short pitch count, I would assume, and the Yankees pen was used yesterday. Masterson can be all over the place, and their pen is nothing to brag about, either. There's a big part of me that wants to unload on that over, especially if it comes to 8.5.
I simply cannot lay -200 with the Red Sox. I get the POTENTIAL SP difference here, but Buccholz can also suck and the White Sox can also hit. With Chicago's awful bullpen and the Red Sox pen faltering lately, that 10 might be quite manageable, especially given the wind blowing out to LF.
People will line up now to take the red hot Rays, but they are in a first game back after playing late last night and going against Shields, a former member of the Rays, obviously. The Royals are under valued here simply because their bats went chilly yesterday. My gut says the Royals put up a decent fight here.
I don't get the Rangers love here. I do realize that nobody has seen Mikolas, which might lead me to F5 U of Rangers F5, but since he too will be on a pitch count, I can't back the Rangers bullpen in any situation whatsoever. Astros or nothing for me, because I do like Cosart and the Rangers are lees lethal against RHP's.
Sooner or later Toronto will start hitting, and if LA has any trouble it can be against LHP, actually. For grins I would take the Jays RL. If you look at the body of work, they probably shouldn't be +150 to too many people, and their pen has actually been better. Although the Norris double costing me one win yesterday doesn't resonate that.
I would most definitely use Seattle in a parlay somewhere, and might. I might even lay the -1.5 here without the ninth at bat. However, Seattle couldn't score this weekend, their in a first game back, and every now and then Corriea will surprise you.
The money seems to suggest the Nats are winners, and maybe that's your other half of the parlay. I'm not so sure that the Orioles with Tillman should be THAT big of an underdog, so the only real play I could make is to take the Baltimore RL. That game has the potential to be one of those public disasters, and because Strasburg has been pitching well of late, you're going to pay for it.
I'm not laying -160 with Oakland, although they're probably winners. Vogelsong let us down last week, BUT, the Giants get a DH here, and one would THINK Oakland would regress some, so I'd still take the Giants RL if you made me.