Coming off a 2-1 day, where we, at the very least, got back on the positive side of even. Still, I can't help but kick myself for throwing Angels onto yesterday's card without GOOD DATA supporting the decision. It was a hunch, and hunches will lead to 50% success at best in the long term. So, instead of a 2-0 day, up 2.02 units, we ended up just .64 units. Like I said, still a winner, and the 2-0 mark on the plays with Fantasy Roundup support should be enough to get the confident juices flowing once again. It's Wednesday, which means we'll break down the 3 afternoon contests now, make any potential plays on them just afterwards, break down the evening games an hour later, and evening plays come in the afternoon.
NL
David Wright - Wright is batting .412 off Kyle Lohse in 17 career appearances against him, with a homer. Brian Schneider, Fernando Tatis and Gary Sheffield have all homered off Lohse, as well, though their career averages are significantly lower.
Angel Berroa - There's no telling if he'll play, but amazingly, Berroa is batting over .400 off Lohse in 27 AB.
Freddy Sanchez - The newest Giant has clobbered Brian Moehler to the tune of .579 in 19 AB, including 4-for-6 this year.
Randy Winn - Winn is 9-for-16 off Moehler, another batter hitting over .500 in a decent sample size
A few other Giants - In much more limited action, Travis Ishikawa (.333), Bengie Molina (.300), Edgar Renteria (.333), Aaron Rowand (.333, homer), Eugenio Velez (.667) have also done a number on Moehler, who has a career ERA of 8.88 against San Francisco.
Doug Davis - Davis appears to have turned around his struggles with back-to-back good starts, one of which was against these very Pirates. Davis shut them out for 6 innings, and the D'backs are suddenly winning games, even ones he starts. The D'backs have shut out the Pirates in 3 straight games, so it's pretty clear they've got a good scouting report.
Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino - We lumped these guys together because neither has faced De La Rosa more than 7 times, but between the two of them, they're a combined 6-for-13 with a homer and a couple RBI.
Jorge Cantu and John Baker - These two are 4-for-9 combined off John Lannan with 2 homers and 5 RBI.
Rich Harden - Another pitcher who seems to have sorted out some struggles, Harden is going against a team he has dominated, already 2-0 against Cincy, and they were playing better when he faced them before. Coming off a career high-tying 11 strikeout game, Harden looks to give the Cubbies a series sweep.
Micah Hoffpauir - Not sure if he'll get in the lineup, but Hoffpauir faced opposing starter Justin Lehr in the Minors, and is 3-for-8 against him with 2 homers.
AL
Nick Markakis - Coming off an upset last night, the O's have to face one of the toughest pitchers in the League, Edwin Jackson. Markakis is 5-for-9 in his career against Edwin, but is the only O's regular with any success at all against him.
Curtis Granderson - Assuming he's ready to go, Curtis is batting .385 off Guthrie with 2 homers.
Magglio Ordonez - This would be a nice boost for the Tigers, if Magglio can do anything productive. He's a career 4-for-7 off Guthrie.
The Twins Big Two - Joe Mauer is 4-for-7 off Aaron Laffey with a homer and 2 RBI, and Justin Morneau is 5-for-11 with 3 RBI
Orlando Cabrera - Newly acquired Twins shortstop is 3-for-7 off Laffey, though the Indians starter has shut down the rest of the Twinkies lineup.
Jhonny Peralta - Among the 2nd-half RBI leaders, Peralta has a homer and a +.300 BAA Francisco Liriano.
Carl Crawford - Crawford is 6-for-8 off Brad Penny; can the rest of the Rays get him home? The rest of the team's numbers are middle-of-the-road, though Jason Bartlett, the new leadoff man, is 4-for-6 off Penny.
Franklin Gutierrez - Welcome back. Gutierrez is 5-for-11 off re-call-up Kyle Davis, with 3 driven in
Juan Rivera - Rivera struggled last night in the Angels first loss in 6 games, but he's 4-for-10 lifetime off Gavin Floyd, with a homer
Chone Figgins - A solid 3-for-7, with a home run, as well
Bobby Abreu - Another pitcher Abreu has picked on in the past, he's 4-for-11 off Floyd. No homers, but he's driven in 4 runs
Some Athletics with no Power - The bane of Tim "The Toolman" Taylor's existence, Adam Kennedy, Ryan Sweeney and Kurt Suzuki are a combined 14-for-26 against Vicente Padilla, but have no homers and only 1 RBI between them. The A's did beat Vicente earlier this year, however.
TOP PLAYS
1) Houston Astros vs.
San Francisco Giants (+120) - As evidenced in the Roundup, the Giants have some experience against Moehler, and most of it is good. As a road dog, this is a good opportunity to make a few extra pennies on a team with the clear offensive advantage today. Joe Martinez has an inflated ERA after a few runs scored when he took a line drive off the side of his head back in April. To that point he had pitched his way into the Bigs after a strong Spring Training, and had picked up a win with 2 innings of scoreless relief. During a stint in Fresno, Martinez went winless, but had an ERA under 3, so it was an issue of run support. If Freddy Sanchez and Randy Winn can continue to pummel Moehler like they've done in the past, the Giants should at least have a few scoring chances - the question will be if they can get a big hit and jump on the Astros starter. Houston has been struggling without Lance Berkman, scoring 3 runs or fewer in almost 75% of their games on a recent skid, so Martinez is catching this team at the right time, and the Giants should get a rare road series victory. **WINNER**
2) Pittsburgh Pirates vs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Even) - I believe this is the time we all expected. The Pirates shipped off every player on their team, the kids won a few games, but a Washington comeback seems to have taken the wind out of Pittsburgh's very small sails. On the momentum front, they are outclassed in this one, losers of 3 straight, whereas the D'backs have won 3 in a row and 17 of 27. The starting pitching could be relatively even, but given the Pirates have been shut out in 3 straight games by the D'backs, I find it hard to believe this is the night they burst forth. Doug Davis pitched 6 shutout innings against them in Arizona, just a few days ago. Ohlendorf has been better at home than on the road, and he did hold Arizona to only 2 runs in 6 innings, but the D'backs hit .316 against him and came up short on a handful of opportunities. Justin Upton is playing like a perennial All Star, the bullpen is starting to make some progress, Stephen Drew is heating up, and the D'backs, a supremely young team, are playing with a full head of steam.
3)
Tampa Bay Rays (-138) vs. Boston Red Sox - The Rays are just unreal at home, and that includes tonight's starter, David Price. Price has only made 1 home start this season where he's allowed more than ONE EARNED RUN. That bodes well against a Boston club that blew a late lead and lost in extra innings last night. With both pens fatigued, the Rays advantage at starting pitcher could very well be the difference in this one. Brad Penny sits on the other side, coming off a stinker of a start at Fenway. He's been better at home than on the road, and is already 0-1 at the Trop this year. I'm a little disappointed we didn't get on this game when the Rays were a -125 favorite, but given that money is coming in on Boston, and the line is STILL moving in Boston's favor, I'm inclined to believe the books are thinking the same way that I am. This is NOT a public fade. This is a play on a good home Rays team against a starter that walks a constant tight-rope act.
4) Kansas City Royals vs.
Seattle Mariners (-105) - I have but one concern with this game, and we'll start with it, and that is that Kyle Davies will pitch with such confidence that he'll keep the Mariners to 0 or 1 run. I don't think it's likely, but possible, given his solid work in the Minors. That being said, the Roundup discovered some numbers on the Mariners that bode well for this game. Davies has had success against new Mariner Jack Wilson, but that's about it. Led by Gutierrez's numbers (see Roundup), either 6 or 7 of the Mariners starting 9 (depending on the lineup) are hitting .333 or better against Davies. On the Mariners' bump is Lucas French, newly minted from the Tigers. French beat the Royals once already this season, throwing 6.1 strong innings. With the Mariners outstanding bullpen and starting pitcher advantage, if French can keep Billy Butler in the yard, this should be a smooth win for the M's.
5) Cincinnati Reds vs.
Chicago Cubs (RL -1.5, -110) - Earlier today I was debating a play on the Money Line, but since the opening line has moved from -165 all the way to -200 (despite the money being, more or less, split), the books have succeeded in driving us to a Run Line play. That being said, this play is still very winnable. Rich Harden has driven a stake into the hearts of Reds fans throughout the season (see Roundup for numbers), and Cincy is falling, drowning, sinking, imploding, whatever you want to call it. They are in danger of getting swept for the 3rd straight series, and leave the bailout in the hands of...wait, who? Justin Lehr? Oh well, I guess if Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey, etc. can't do it, might as well try the "control pitcher" from the Minors. Lehr spit up a dud his first time out, and today faces a hungry Cubs lineup that can smell blood. With the Cardinals game pending (which looks, right now, like it favors the Mets), the Cubbies can sneak back into sole possession of the Central Division by picking on weak, struggling teams like Cincy.