Lost our free play on Boston yesterday in one infamous inning, and we move on. Crucified Monday, in case there was anyone that was unaware. So, no free play (sorry) because honestly, I just don't feel like it. And I don't think I need motivation. The word is focus. Don't ever forget that, because everyone is "motivated". I don't think touts (well, maybe one or two TV stars) actually don't care if they win. Not giving the "it's my money" too, because most people don't care. All they want are winners. It's what we all want.
Reds-Pirates: Hard to tell which pitcher shows their stuff, but I do remember Cueto getting knocked around last year in a playoff game, and he recently shut down the Pirates, so perhaps the adjustment thing favors Pittsburgh. We'll have to see what happens with bullpens on Monday.
Mets-Cardinals: Process of elimination in that I am just not laying -150 or more on the road. Yes, perhaps the Cardinals are that easy, but it's STL RL or the Mets RL, either way. Gee doesn't suck and the home team with the last at bat and the +1.5 is usually what I'd do. However, if we had -1 available here, that would be a viable option as well. Mets have actually fared half decent against Wainright.
Miami-Atlanta: Now we can get Fernandez at + money if we want to fade Atlanta at home. This one's pretty dependent on what happens Monday, but Wood is a major ground-ball pitcher and this is a pitchers park, so this may struggle to get over. I do like the first five innings under quite a bit. It probably comes down to bullpens, and again, let's see what happens.
Arizona-Cubs: Hard to think of Hammel being -120 or so to many people, let alone the potentially potent D-Backs. However, until his last outing, McCarthy has been awful. He did throw a lot of pitches, and until that game had been a ground ball pitcher. The big problem for me is the Arizona's bullpen is just that bad that anything but an "over" in their game(s) is not doable at the moment.
San Diego-Milwaukee: One of the more heavily bet games last night and it looks like it will be again tonight. Tons of tickets on the Brewers as you'd expect w/Gallardo pitching, so either sharp money or dog scalping (google it) on the Padres. Kennedy has quietly produced a 1.04 WHIP this season and only given up one bomb, so I lean under and Padres RL. Gallardo can be had at times. He threw a ton of pitches against the Pirates and gave up a ton of flyball outs, too, so there is a precedent.
Giants-Rockies: Expected better effort from Vogelsong last night (duh) and in fact the Giants did have tons of chances to score, twice with Posey up, RISP, and less than two outs. Not implying it was a good call last night, simply stating what happened because it DOES matter going forward. Clearly no respect for Morales whatsoever, since they opened as a home dog and are actually a bigger dog now. The fact that the total has gone up a full run tells me this could be a game to take the Giants RL (taking the road team RL assures you of 27 outs) but I won't play the over now, not at 10.5, Later moves probably the right ones.
Phillies-Dodgers: Didn't see the Dodgers getting shutout at home by anyone last night, nor did I see the Phillies continuing to hit like they did in Colorado. Perhaps a little regression by both teams and a 3-3 game means over. Perhaps. Tons of respect for Ryu and he can indeed be a freak, but I have two concerns. OK, three. He probably isn't going to throw another shutout, his only bad start came at home, and he threw 114 pitches last outing. Never what A.J. will bring, but there's no chance I could back the Phillies and do lean over. If A.J. has his groundball stuff working, then it's a 2-1 game. Far too many variables for me.
White Sox-Tigers: Is there really a way that JV can be -245 to the team that's scored the second most runs in baseball and perhaps knows him as well as anyone? Well, I guess that's .50 out of total disrespect for Leesman, and relief pitcher by trade with 15 or so big league innings, and not very good ones, either. Even tho it's chilly in @johnnydetroit my guess is they find a way to score eight between them because there's a stiff helping breeze, but I could argue that JV will be "on" and that the Tigers might not score early because they've never seen the kid. Perhaps F5 under and game over?
Kansas City-Cleveland: I did have an early lean to KC and still do to some extent, simply because Salazar, a betting darling, only opened at -110 or so and the Indians are at home. I did watch a fair bit of last night's game, and the Royals just weren't able to hit in key situations, and the Indians only scored off the long ball. I almost see that happening again tonight, because Shields will make the occasional mistake, and in fact the total is down to 7. Tough one on paper. but still think this could be a 3-2 type game.
Toronto-Baltimore: There was a time not long ago that Dickey would be far more than -130 to the Orioles and Gonzalez. So, is the value with Dickey at the cheap price for a home team or are they saying "please take Toronto because we know the Orioles will outscore them?". And of course that's the variable. Do we get the Dickey that's owned the Orioles or the one that's got a 1.65 WHIP this season? I tend to think the latter and Baltimore could be a live dog. I certainly trust their bullpen more, or somewhat more.
Tampa Bay-Minnesota: Amazing that Price opens at about -230 and is less than that now. That's either total scalping (google it) or would tell me to automatically play the Twins RL. Gibson shutout Toronto and induced 13 ground ball outs, so in a place like the Trop where we see a lot of "unders" I would think Twins RL. The total going up is perhaps people thinking that the Rays will score most of them, but I don't agree. Twins RL and under.
Yankees-Boston: When has Lester started at Fenway Park at -130, which is cheap, and no bet down to -110 or so? Not very often, that would be the right answer. Lester beat the Yankees two weeks ago in the Bronx, so there's some familiarity with several of the "new" Yankees. This will only be Tanaka's second road start, and his first one in Toronto he was somewhat hittable. Not sure if he's seen the "big stage" yet with this rivalry, but with Boston not seeing him, this would also be perhaps a F5 under. I doubt I could pass up Lester at home at that price.
Texas-Oakland: I knew last night's play on Oakland was in trouble in the 3rd (or so) inning when the A's had second and third with one out and couldn't score, which is very uncharacteristic of them, too. Because Texas hits lefties better than righties and because Oakland is the one with more pressure after losing last night, AND with the total coming down, I could make an excellent case for the Rangers, at the very least the RL.
Houston-Seattle: I bet (I do that, Degen) that people will assume that Seattle will rebound after Felix having lost last night, but is Ramirez really worth -165 to a team that CAN hit right handed pitching? No. It has also been my experience that things like silly errors tend to go in streaks as well, so again, I'd simply take the Houston RL as a fade of Ramirez AND the fact that Seattle hasn't been hitting in about ten days.
Angels-Washington: I will take Skaggs at that price as a LHP against the Nationals without really thinking about it much. Jordan will give up hits but also keeps the ball down so forcing opponents to hit into DP's is a strength of his. and the Angels tend to do that, so I also lean under here, but again, F5 due to the lack of familiarity. I don't trust either bullpen, and that's probably what this comes down to. Do the work.