Monday went relatively well at 3-2, though if the Twins weren't such large pieces of dung, we could have taken home a sweet 4-1. Yesterday, due to air travel, we had to skip the Fantasy Roundup, but now, on this fine Wednesday, we're back with some notes. Time constraints make the afternoon games a wash, so we'll start with the 3pm card and move forward from there:
NL
Ubaldo Jimenez - Jimenez has held the D'backs to a .174 BAA in 2 starts this year, so believe it or not, his ERA against them could actually be better than its current post at 2.70. That being said, the D'backs have a knack for late comebacks at Coors, so this doesn't necessarily mean a Rockies win.
Tim Lincecum - A no-brainer, Lincecum is perfect against the Braves in his career, and shut them out earlier this season in San Francisco.
Christian Guzman - A .357 hitter against Mike Pelfrey, I expect Guzman to get on base twice and score at least one run in this contest.
Lance Berkman - Not a mind-blowing average of .279 against Chris Carpenter, but Berkman does have 6 home runs in only 29 AB, which is pretty darn impressive.
Albert Pujols - After last night against Wandy, Albert will be looking to get back on track against a guy he has had more success off, Roy Oswalt. Albert has 4 homers against the righty, and an average over .300.
Mark DeRosa - DeRosa is 10-for-21 off Oswalt, amazingly.
Chad Billingsley - How about an 0.92 ERA against Cincinnati in his career? How about that.
The Dodgers Offense - This looks like a rousing beat-down in the making, with starters Ethier, Blake, Kemp, and Loney, and reserves Pierre, Ausmus, and Loretta all hitting over .300 lifetime against Bronson Arroyo. Even if Manny misses a few games, this one looks rough for Cincy.
AL
J.D. Drew - 4-for-12 lifetime off Padilla with a homer, Drew may be batting near the top of the Sox lineup.
Mark Kotsay - Kotsay might sneak his way into the starting lineup for the Sox tonight thanks to his 7-for-16 mark against Vicente Padilla>
Big Papi and Kevin Youkilis - I grouped these two names because they're the more 'obvious' choices on the Sox. Papi is 5-for-15 against the Rangers' starter with 2 homers, and Youk is 5-for-12.
Joe Saunders - Saunders has been downright awful lately, but like Livan Hernandez, there's always a team out there that can get a pitcher back on track; that team for Saunders is Kansas City. Joe is 2-0 with an 0.56 ERA against the Royals, including a complete game shutout earlier this year, and has held Bloomquist, DeJesus and Butler hitless in 17 combined AB.
Jermaine Dye - Batting a cool .500 off James Shields with a homer.
Jim Thome - Not quite as resounding success as Dye, but Thome is still swinging that big stick, with a .333 average off Shields and a homer.
Key Questions - Will the Tigers continue to give Felix Hernandez a semi-rough time? Will either team score in the first 9 innings in Braves/Giants? Will the Dodgers matchup look so good that it will turn out awful? Can Arizona find a way to win at Coors...again? Who is Carlos Torres?
Top Plays1) Colorado Rockies vs.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+200) - Tough to pass on a huge dog like this one when it's on a team that has won roughly 2/3 of their games at Coors over the last few seasons. The D'backs, for all their faults, seem to find a way to get it done in Colorado, as we saw last night with a comeback win over Aaron Cook. Tonight, John Garland, who has pitched much better than his record and ERA would indicate, will give the D'backs a chance at a monster upset against the Vegas line. I just can't let this one go without dropping a unit as a longshot. Fact of the matter is, I feel the D'backs have about a 50/50 shot of winning this game. If they can get Jimenez out by the 6th or 7th, that's the key. And based on the line, if you make this play a few times, you should come out ahead. Let's hope that trend starts with a win today.
2)
Los Angeles Dodgers (RL -1.5, +110) vs. Cincinnati Reds - As you can see in the Roundup above, with or without Manny the Dodgers are in fine position to sweep the series from the Reds. That being said, Bronson Arroyo has been hot lately, and that scares me just a tad. So, we'll go with the almighty Run Line in this one, unwilling to part with -200 juice in case Bronson pulls the huge upset. The chances seem slim that the Dodgers won't push across at least a few, and if Billingsley wakes up against the Reds like usual, this should be an easy 6-1 Dodgers win.
3)
Detroit Tigers (+120) vs. Seattle Mariners - This one is something of a sneaky play against one of the best pitchers in baseball, but some of the Tigers (Granderson, Laird, Cabrera) have given Felix Hernandez fits in his career. I think the Tigers can score 2-3 runs off Felix in 6-7 innings, so if Galarraga can keep this thing close, Detroit's got a good chance of winning another game at home.
4) Kansas City Royals vs.
Los Angeles Angels (-110) - Joe Saunders has destroyed Kansas City, so he'll get back on track tonight against a team just struggling to win even one game. The Angels, as I noted a few days ago, are looking to pull away from the Rangers by beating on some terrible teams.
5)
Chicago White Sox (+123) vs. Tampa Bay Rays - I'm going with the public on this one, since James Shields has struggled against the White Sox, and the Rays, who are nothing to write home about on the road, are facing a pitcher they know NOTHING about. This pick is not for the faint of heart.