I think this is a good guideline the last week, but you have to look at the situations and conditions of the last day on each game IMO:
It DID go 8-7 OVER last year.
While I agree with this in general the final week, I don't think this will be a winning strategy ACROSS THE BOARD. I DO think it will likely have a solid edge when two NON PLAYOFF teams play.
When a playoff team plays a non playoff team and the game is a blowout in either direction, these 4Qs have often been REALLY low scoring. The playoff team really doesn't want to tune up for the playoffs with a shootout.....and they don't want OT either, so no fouling late typically trying to catch up if down. Seems ike the high flying playoff teams are ok with running with the bottom feeder....the lower scoring playoff teams want playoff pace basketball.
If two playoff teams are playing each other, you usually don't want over. Last year, the high flying Rockets played the high scoring Lakers.....we got 45-49-43-43 points in the quarters.
If there is a playoff bid on the line (does not apply here) it becomes a playoff game, and under is the only way to look. Memphis/Phx , Dallas/Phx both were last week games that UNDER was the clear cut way to go.