I see this time and time again.....people always losing....a pitcher giving up 5 runs in the ninth, last second field goal, last second shot....Why are gamblers always on the losing end of it??

 It should be a 50/50 chance of picking the right team, however, it never works out that way? It always seems like Gamblers lose 80% of the time.

monte003:

I see this time and time again.....people always losing....a pitcher giving up 5 runs in the ninth, last second field goal, last second shot....Why are gamblers always on the losing end of it??

 It should be a 50/50 chance of picking the right team, however, it never works out that way? It always seems like Gamblers lose 80% of the time.

 Three reasons:

1) Bad Money Management

2) Terrible Money Management

3) Horrendous Money Management

 

It killed me when I started gambling and it continues to kill all average gamblers

Ok, this is a book here....and I am writing one actually....but I will simplify it....

BECAUSE THEY ARE IDIOTS.

(smile)

If gamblers spent more time at Pregame, they might do better. Follow the same strategy on all wagers. It happens to everyone, you win a few, start increasing your bets, then lose a few and you've dumped more than you made. Money Management is so damn difficult, and we all need to find the right ways to do it. Taking a deep breath, walking away, whatever it takes to make sure you don't start chasing

 1) Money management - Gamblers go big on the "obvious" favorite.  A fair amount of the time the favorite take a loss and the gambler is stuck with a large hit that they cannot recover from.  

2) Time -  In general, the more time you spent on it, the more successful you are.  Look at the cappers on Pregame, the people who post daily picks..they are successful because they talk sports all day.  They are dedicated to winning and will not accept a few losses. They consider all angles of the game to make an educated choice.

Great question with a simple answer...

 Aside from having money management (which is hands-down the most important factor), the biggest way to consistently beat the books is to play UNDERS and UNDERDOGS in the right spots. Let's face it, the majority of gamblers love unloading on favorites. They have a mindset that because these teams look better on paper and because Vegas lists them as the better team for that given day, they should cash in. Obviously, it's never that easy. The same can be said for over plays. Sports fans love home runs and touchdowns and three-point shots and in turn, they root for lots of scoring. Think about it, when the average sports bettor throws money on a game, he wants to be entertained -- which is probably why he's betting in the first place. Even though it might be boring to watch and root for low scoring sports events, as we've seen in the MLB the past few days, the under has been hitting at an unbelievable rate. 

 People here at Pregame are able to win consistently because they are way more intelligent than your average sports bettor and they research, research, research. Sharp gamblers follow line movements and know when and why they change. They avoid thinking like fans and use their knowledge of the game and best judgement to make the best valued picks. 

 And of course, they never chase and they rarely lay huge chalk on the biggest favorites. 

I agree with everything that has been said but what i've learned throughout the years is playing the less obvious picks. Linesmakers are so smart that they put lines out that look easy to the inexperienced bettor. I find myself fading my initial thoughts a lot of times to win. I don't know if any of you ever do this but i've found that it works. if a line looks too good to be true it probably is and bet the other side. Vegas isn't in the business to lose money and wants to take yours!!

 As far as money mangement goes, the average gambler does not have a bankroll to begin with, they have 500 or 600 hundred bucks and

starts gambling random quantities, until they are out of those few hundred extra bucks etc. So there is no bankroll set to begin with 

but the average guy still wants to bet, so they do it for fun. No the average gambler does not lose 80% of the time that is imposible

and believe me I know several very incompetent guys, they still only lose about 56% to 60% of the time, so when you have no bankroll 

or your bankroll consist of 3 to 5 plays you are bound to lose at some point anyway.

 

  Most people in this or other forums will criticize people playing parlays or such, but to the average guy beginning, parlays are actually 

"the only choice".. What do I mean?  If you only have 1000 dollars or less what are you suppose to do? divide it  in 100 or so units?

so that you only make 10 or 20 dolar straight wagers?  Say what? damn gambling is way too time and emotionally consuming for the

average guy to be so patient with their little money. 

  As far as services go, most of them are only marketing wizards who have no idea how to make money or pick winners

( Lang, Feiner, Mcmordie, Marc lawrence etc) These guys are proven losers, and even the guys that more or less win, divide their picks 

in packages, so that you have to pay hundreds more if you want all their picks..Kelso Sturgeon comes to mind.

Having said that I agree the average guy does not know how to pick winners in any consistent basis, and even those who do will have

losing streaks every know and then.

 Then come the wanna be�s, guys who think they are so smart, that figure "if i bet agains line movement or against the public" I should win

80% of my picks and such...the truth of the matter is the games are not really stacked against us these way, but the odds always are -110

or more in other sports. My 2 cents. 

DFRESH-  Great answer.,.....could not have said it better myself.

 1.  Less is more -  Low Volume - key in on single, flat bet plays

2.  Money Management  -  Pointspread OR moneyline plays

3.  Novice guys chase their tails....play too many games, spread themselves thin

4.  Follow public consensus - rarely play dogs

 BAD BEATS-  Part of the business and the game.  In 17 years I cannot count how many games I have lost in the 9th inning, a kneel down in football....a wild 3 point 45 footer at the buzzer for shits and giggles by the guy doing it...It happens....It has happened countless times....IT IS PART OF THE DEAL...... 

First, you have to learn what are statistics and probabilities and then, you have to learn how the market works.

It is not about picking winners, it is about finding Value: http://pregame.com/forums/forums/t/89739.aspx