NFL Football is the most popular sport on which to wager. No game is larger than the Super Bowl in the eyes of the betting public. Literally billions of dollars will be wagered on this game and the hundreds of proposition bets (all widely favoring the house) that accompany it. It seems that it is almost un-American to not wager on the Super Bowl. The media hype that accompanies this game further fuels the fire. The social events that surround it only reinforce the emotional attachment to the outcome. Everyone has an opinion, only approximately 50% of them will win. That outcome will most probably be attached to the net turnover margin in the game rather than a positive play made by many of the fine offensive performers in the contest. In short, it is the essence of the word sports gambling. For there will be little handicapping analysis done by 99% of the people who make their wagers. To the professional handicapper and sports bettor, it is clear that there are far more outstanding wagers to be made this week on the nearly 300 basketball games that will be played. If your sports betting goal is to make money, I suggest you join the thought process of those professionals. Otherwise, you are just GAMBLING and you work too hard for your money to do that.
Joe Gavazzi Winning Sports Advice
The 2013-14 “140” CBKB Defensive Dandies AND MORE
60-24 ATS (71%) Is your Record Better Than This?
By Joe Gavazzi, Winning Sports Advice
In early January, I authored my list of Defensive Dandies for the CBKB season. At the time of that article on Monday, January 6, 2014, the Defensive Dandies were 441-121 SU and 248-171 ATS. In the three weeks that have passed, these teams have continued at a 60% pace. At that time, I also authored a list of Fundamentalists. This list included teams who had a positive rebound margin, a positive TO margin, and a positive Assist/TO margin. Today’s list is a combination of those two articles, in which I relate those critical margins along with the statistical parameters necessary to qualify for Defensive Dandy status. Remember, all teams must meet the following minimum standards to be a member of the Defensive Dandy club.
- Allow 67 or less points a game
- Allow 40% or less from the field
- Allow 33% or less from the 3 point arc
When these four numbers add up to 140 or less, you have a member of the “140” Defensive Dandy club.
Now let us take a look at the qualifying teams from the 250 lined teams in college hoops as of Monday, January 27, 2014. Note also the critical margins in the final 3 columns in the chart.
Team
|
PPG
|
FG
%
|
3 PT
FG %
|
TOTAL
|
SU
|
ATS
|
ATS
DOG
|
RBD
MGN
|
A/TO
MGN
|
TO
MGN
|
TOT
MGN
|
#Arizona$$
|
57
|
37
|
29
|
123
|
20-0
|
13-6
|
1-0
|
+10.1
|
+4.5
|
+1.9
|
+16.5
|
Arizona St.
|
66
|
40
|
30
|
136
|
15-5
|
10-8
|
0-3
|
-0.4
|
+3.3
|
+0.7
|
+3.6
|
Buffalo$
|
66
|
40
|
27
|
133
|
10-6
|
8-4
|
3-1
|
+2.2
|
+0.7
|
+0.2
|
+3.1
|
#Cinci$$
|
57
|
38
|
34
|
129
|
19-2
|
10-5
|
2-1
|
+4.8
|
+2.2
|
+4.5
|
+11.5
|
#Clemson
|
56
|
38
|
27
|
121
|
13-6
|
6-7
|
1-3
|
+5.1
|
-0.6
|
+0.3
|
+4.8
|
UConn$
|
66
|
39
|
32
|
137
|
16-4
|
9-9
|
1-2
|
+1.4
|
+2.0
|
+1.1
|
+4.5
|
Creighton$$
|
66
|
40
|
33
|
139
|
17-3
|
13-5
|
1-0
|
+5.2
|
+8.5
|
+0.7
|
+14.4
|
E. Mich
|
64
|
37
|
30
|
131
|
11-8
|
8-7
|
4-4
|
-2.8
|
-1.0
|
+3.0
|
-0.8
|
Florida$
|
59
|
39
|
33
|
131
|
17-2
|
10-4
|
1-0
|
+4.4
|
+1.0
|
+2.6
|
+8.0
|
Fla. St.
|
64
|
37
|
32
|
133
|
13-6
|
11-6
|
5-3
|
+1.8
|
-2.4
|
-1.3
|
-1.9
|
Georgetown
|
67
|
40
|
31
|
138
|
11-8
|
7-11
|
1-3
|
+0.6
|
+1.3
|
-0.3
|
+1.6
|
Gonzaga$$
|
67
|
40
|
32
|
139
|
18-3
|
11-8
|
0-0
|
+4.7
|
+4.6
|
+0.7
|
+10.0
|
Harvard$
|
60
|
40
|
32
|
132
|
15-3
|
9-3
|
0-2
|
+5.3
|
+1.7
|
+2.6
|
+9.6
|
Indiana
|
67
|
40
|
29
|
136
|
13-7
|
10-9
|
4-2
|
+11.1
|
-3.8
|
-2.4
|
+4.9
|
Iowa$$
|
66
|
38
|
28
|
132
|
16-4
|
11-6
|
2-2
|
+10.0
|
+4.9
|
+1.9
|
+16.8
|
#Kansas St.$
|
61
|
40
|
28
|
129
|
14-6
|
13-5
|
4-2
|
+3.2
|
+3.0
|
+1.0
|
+7.2
|
Kentucky
|
66
|
39
|
30
|
135
|
15-4
|
9-7
|
1-2
|
+10.9
|
0.0
|
-1.1
|
+9.8
|
LA Tech$$
|
66
|
40
|
27
|
133
|
17-4
|
9-5
|
1-3
|
+4.2
|
+4.9
|
+5.4
|
+14.5
|
Louisville$$
|
62
|
39
|
30
|
131
|
17-3
|
9-8
|
0-0
|
+3.8
|
+4.8
|
+6.8
|
+15.4
|
Miami FLA
|
59
|
40
|
34
|
133
|
10-9
|
6-9
|
5-5
|
+0.6
|
+0.6
|
0.0
|
+1.2
|
Mich. St.$$
|
65
|
38
|
33
|
136
|
18-2
|
12-7
|
0-0
|
+5.2
|
+6.6
|
+2.7
|
+14.5
|
Missouri
|
66
|
39
|
30
|
135
|
15-4
|
7-10
|
1-1
|
+6.8
|
-1.7
|
-1.4
|
+3.7
|
N.western
|
64
|
41
|
31
|
136
|
10-11
|
7-13
|
1-1
|
-3.5
|
-0.4
|
-0.5
|
-5.4
|
#Ohio St.$
|
58
|
39
|
26
|
123
|
16-4
|
10-9
|
1-0
|
+0.9
|
+1.5
|
+3.6
|
+6.0
|
Ohio U$
|
63
|
38
|
30
|
131
|
14-5
|
7-6
|
4-1
|
+2.3
|
+1.2
|
+1.0
|
+4.5
|
Okla. St.$
|
66
|
38
|
30
|
134
|
16-3
|
7-7
|
1-0
|
+1.1
|
+3.9
|
+4.3
|
+9.3
|
Pitt$$
|
60
|
40
|
31
|
131
|
18-2
|
10-6
|
0-0
|
+9.2
|
+6.4
|
+3.3
|
+18.9
|
Richmond
|
65
|
40
|
28
|
133
|
14-6
|
10-9
|
1-3
|
-5.6
|
+0.3
|
+3.2
|
-2.1
|
#St. Louis$
|
58
|
39
|
28
|
126
|
18-2
|
7-9
|
1-1
|
+3.3
|
+2.9
|
+3.1
|
+9.3
|
#S.D. St.$
|
56
|
36
|
27
|
119
|
18-1
|
10-6
|
2-1
|
+5.4
|
0.0
|
+4.3
|
+9.7
|
#SMU$$
|
60
|
36
|
33
|
129
|
16-4
|
12-4
|
3-2
|
+8.3
|
+1.8
|
+0.3
|
+10.4
|
Tex.A&M
|
62
|
40
|
30
|
132
|
12-7
|
6-7
|
3-2
|
-0.3
|
+0.8
|
+1.7
|
+2.2
|
UNLV
|
65
|
39
|
27
|
131
|
13-7
|
12-7
|
3-2
|
+4.3
|
+1.8
|
-0.8
|
+5.3
|
Utah$$
|
62
|
40
|
29
|
131
|
14-6
|
13-2
|
7-0
|
+5.9
|
+5.3
|
+2.0
|
+13.2
|
#UTEP
|
64
|
38
|
28
|
130
|
14-6
|
11-3
|
6-1
|
+1.0
|
0.0
|
-1.6
|
-0.6
|
#Virginia$$
|
56
|
38
|
32
|
126
|
15-5
|
10-6
|
2-1
|
+7.2
|
+1.6
|
+1.4
|
+10.2
|
W. Illinois
|
61
|
40
|
31
|
132
|
8-12
|
7-7
|
4-6
|
+1.0
|
-0.3
|
-0.7
|
0.0
|
W. Mich.
|
66
|
39
|
30
|
135
|
11-7
|
7-10
|
5-4
|
+2.1
|
-3.0
|
-1.6
|
-2.5
|
#Wich. St.$$
|
60
|
39
|
30
|
129
|
21-0
|
15-3
|
1-0
|
+8.1
|
+3.5
|
+3.0
|
+14.6
|
Wisc. G.B.$
|
65
|
38
|
31
|
134
|
17-3
|
12-6
|
2-0
|
+3.7
|
+3.6
|
+1.7
|
+9.0
|
Wyoming
|
61
|
40
|
32
|
133
|
13-6
|
10-6
|
4-1
|
-0.1
|
+1.5
|
-0.8
|
+0.6
|
# = Total defensive number 130 or less.
$ = Positive margins in RBD, A/TO, and TO MGN totaling less than 10.
$$ = Margins total 10 or more with all margins positive.
Please note that the short hand symbols above are a quick way for you to determine just how strong these Defensive Dandies are! As a measure of indicating how successful this statistical formulation can be, consider that the 2 undefeated teams, Arizona and Wichita St., are among the only teams who qualify with the highest ratings across the board.
As a further measure of just how successful these teams are for our purposes, consider that the 41 teams listed above are 608-196 SU (75.62%) and 394-265 ATS (59.7%) through Monday, January 27th. If you really want to make serious money, consider the subsets below
- 117-60 ATS (66.1%) all teams denoted by # with defensive number of 130 or less
- 148-71 ATS (67.5%) all teams denoted by $$ with positive margins totaling 10 or more
- 60-24 ATS (71.4%) by combining the above 2 categories
- 257-139 ATS (64.8%) by excluding any team without a # or $ (137-126 ATS) (52%)
In years gone by, these Defensive Dandies have been the most reliable statistical handicapping tool available. But, don’t forget to include the 230 Club Offensive Members in your statistical handicapping arsenal. For those who would prefer that I do all the work, my CBKB selections, which are a blend of this type of statistical handicapping, home/road dichotomies, coaching profiles, situational analysis, and technical trends, may be accessed each day on the site.