10-2-1 overall the last 2 days, including 4-0 in my top plays. I''m not getting too excited just yet as I haven't been able to string 3 good days in a row in a while. I look to break the trend today.
3 UNIT PLAY
Tampa Bay -113 over KANSAS CITY: The Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series and 21-6 in their last 27 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, while the Royals are 3-13 in Meches last 16 starts vs. American League East and 3-12 in their last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rays have owned the Royals lately, going 15-6 in their last 21 games vs them, inclung winning 3 of 4 this year. In that first seires the Ray dominated the firts 3 games of it, outscoring the Royals by 6.3 rpg, before losing losing the finale 7-4. Matt Garza lost that finale and i'm sure he will be looking for payback tonight. Matt comes in with a solid 8-5 mark overall and a 3.68 ERA, plus he is 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA in his last 7 starts. Matt has struggled on the road with 2.4 mark and a 5.91 ERA, but he will be taking on a KA offense that comes in having scored just 6 total runs in their 3 game home set vs a questionable Tigers pitching staff. KC Has scored 4.4 rpg in their last 7 overall and they have scored just 3 rpg in their last 7 at home, plus they only score 4 rpg vs righties and 4 rpg at night. The Ray's offense has been in a bit of a funk lately, but this team is 42-26 vs righties on the year, hitting .267 and scoring 5 rpg vs them, plus the Rays have put 6.3 rpg on the board in their last 20 meetings with the Royals. Gil Meche does come in with a 1-0 matk in his last 3 starts, but overall he is just 7-9 with a 4.48 ERA overall, including 3-4 mark with a 5.25 ERA at home. Matt is 0-3, but with a solid 3.40 ERA in 4 starts vs the Royals, while Gil is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in 9 career starts vs the Rays. Tampa and Matt both get revenge for the 7-4 loss they suffered 17 days ago. (Loss -- -3.39 Units)
2 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ NY Mets Under 9.5: The Under is 12-5-1 in Phillies last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-2 in Moyers last 11 starts as an underdog, while the Under is 9-1-2 in Mets last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-1 in Perezs last 6 starts as a favorite. Jamie Moyer is having a good year for the Phills with a 3.96 ERA overall, Including a 3.12 ERA on the road and a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. HIs road starts average just 7.9 rpg, including just 5.8 rpg in his last 5 away from home, while his last 8 overall have averaged just 6.3 rpg. Jamie has always pitched well vs the Mets with a 2.89 ERA in 10 career starts vs them, with those games averaging 7.3 rpg and only 2 of those games scoring more than 9 runs. Oliver Perez has been on a roll of late, posting a 1.39 ERA in his last 4 starts, with those games averaging just 5.5 rpg. Oliver does have a 4.44 ERA at home overall, but just a 2.88 ERA in his last 4 starts at home, with those games averaging 6.5 rpg. Oliver has a 3.39 ERA in his career vs the Phills and in 3 starts this year vs them he has yet to allow a run to them in 18.1 innings of work. Both offense have been good of late as the Phils have scored 4.7 rpg in their last 9, while the Mets have put up 5.2 rpg in their last 10 games, but I really feel that today will be all about the pitching and if the teams couldn't put more than 9 runs on the board with the kind of pitching that was on the mound last night, then I don't see them doing it today vs these two starters. A pitchers duel in NY today. (Easy Winner--- +2 Units)
Toronto -137 over BALTIMORE: The Blue Jays are 28-11 in Halladays last 39 starts during game 3 of a series and 17-4 in Halladays last 21 starts vs. Orioles, while the Orioles are 7-20 in their last 27 during game 3 of a series and 1-8 in Cabreras last 9 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Roy Halladay has simply owned the Orioles in his career going 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA, including a 7-2 mark with a 3.46 ERA at Camden Yards. Roy is also 5-0 in his last 7 starts vs them, with a 2.67 ERA. Daniel Cabrera is 3-0 at home this year, but he has been living dangerously as he owns a 5.22 ERA in his home starts. That's thanks to the Orioles scoring over 6 rpg for him at home, but it won't happen today vs Mr. Halladay. The Orioles have scored just 2.9 rpg off Roy in his last 7 starts vs them, plus they score just 3.9 rpg in day games this year and they hit just .254 and score 4.8 rpg vs righty starters on the year and they average just 3.4 rpg in Daniel's day starts. Daniel is 4-7 with a 4.48 ERA in 15 starts vs the Jays, including an 0-2 mark with a 5.21 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. The Jays offense has sputtered for much of the year, but they have come on lately, putting up 5.1 rpg in their last 9 games. They have also averaged 4.9 rpg in day games and 6.1 rpg in Roy's last 9 starts vs them. These teams must first finish yesterday's suspended game before playing this one, but no matter what happens in that one I expect Roy to have another dominant performance vs the O's and walk away with his 17th win vs them. (Easy Winner--- +2 Units)
1 UNIT PLAY
San Diego/ Pittsburgh Over 10.5: The Over is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 games as a road underdog and 10-4-1 in their last 15 meetings in Pittsburgh, while the Over is 5-1-1 in Pirates last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter and 21-9-1 in Pirates last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Clay Hensley is making his first start for the Pads this year so there isn't much info to go on with him, but he does have a career 4.28 ERA on the road. Clay will be facing a Pittsburghoffense that is clicking on all cylinders right now, as they come in averaging 8.3 rpg in their last 3 games and they have averaged 5.3 rpg in their last 14 at home. Good cause all I need is 5 runs out of them. Pitt home games average just 9.4 rpg on the year, but their last 14 at hoem have averaged 11.2 rpg, plus their last 7 games overal have averaged 10.6 rpg. The San Diego offense has been sorry for most of the year, but they come in having scored 5.2 rpg in their last 6 games, with those 6 games averaging 12.3 rpg. Yoslan Herrera has been horrible in his two starts for the Pirates, as he has allowed 13 ER on 19 hits and 4 walks in just 6 innings or work. Padre offense should have a field day with him and easily get 5 runs or more off him. This should be a wild one, with 13 or more runs being scored. (Loss -- -1.1 Units)
BEST OF LUCK TODAY EVERYONE[Y]
