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THE KING MAKER: EASY WINNER on the White Sox OVER!

Last post 07-24-2008, 12:26 AM by Stevebeav. 39 replies.
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  • 07-23-2008, 5:43 AM

    THE KING MAKER: EASY WINNER on the White Sox OVER!

    WELCOME TO THE KING MAKER

    CLICK HERE FOR THE KING MAKER'S AFTERNOON POWER PLAY! 

    We squeaked out a WINNER with the OVER in the Houston game yesterday, and the little write-up about taking the Yankee/Minny 1st 5 inning UNDER turned out to be good advice so it turned out to be a fine day.

    Yesterday I started a small bankroll so that I could keep track of every KM play. It's one way to guage the progrees of the King Maker, and certainly a good way to learn how to grow a small roll into a larger, safer bankroll. Mostly, this is for my own records purposes, but it should provide a rough guide to bankroll management.

    From Yesterday's thread: 

    In order to accurately track my personal win/loss ratio we set up a little $309.00 account.

    Right now, because the Roll is so small, there will be a slight deviation from certain UNIT measurements.

    1-Unit will generally SEEK roughly 3% WINNINGS ($10.00)

    2-Units will generally SEEK roughly 5% WINNINGS ($15.00)

    3-Units will generally SEEK roughly 7%-10% WINNINGS ($21-$30.00)

     

    This is in direct violation of most sound management practices, but frankly, this would be how I personally would handle a $300.00 Bankroll.

     

    As we Rise in income we will shift the UNIT Scale to reflect the Balance. If we Fall we will alter as well.

    *Sometimes the Session may use more than  10% of the roll if needed early on.......

     

    Today:

    Houston/Pitt OVER 9.5 -115 

    1-Rough Unit

    Laying $11.50 to WIN $10.00

    Beginning Balance $309.99

    WINNER: New Balance $319.99

     

    All KM plays will be reflected in this balance, so it can be requested and presented at any time.

    • Post Points: 5
  • 07-23-2008, 7:00 AM

    Re: THE KING MAKER FOR HUMP DAY: Afternoon Power Play posted...

    WE HAVE A LITTLE SITUATION BREWING THIS AFTERNOON!

    I just got done watching film, and I am pretty excited about a game this afternoon. If you're interested I posted the pick at the pros......

    CLICK HERE FOR THE KING MAKER'S AFTERNOON POWER PLAY! 

    I should be abble to load the film that I just watched, and I think ican explain the situation pretty accurately....

     

    I think you need to act pretty quickly here....the line is WAY off and the price may rise.......

    • Post Points: 5
  • 07-23-2008, 7:19 AM

    Re: THE KING MAKER FOR HUMP DAY: Afternoon Power Play posted...

    FYI: I have the Film and most of the relevant info posted......nice set-up....

    • Post Points: 5
  • 07-23-2008, 7:57 AM

    Re: THE KING MAKER FOR HUMP DAY: Afternoon Power Play posted...

    The Climate for Pitchers today:

    Shields can work in the Fletcher Zone: The following splits game from a 7-1 WINNER over detroit last season! Please note the beautiful strike rate! See the K/BB ratio!!!!!

    Tampa Bay Devil Rays
    Pitchers IP  H  R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
    J Shields (W, 12-8) 7.0 5 1 1 0 9 1 103-68 4.32

     

    Grienke appeared to have trouble in the  Estabrook zone on June 30th of this year: Please note that he was cycling through his pitches pretty well and the Strike rate was healthy. It looks like he was uncomfortable, but he's not a disaster waiting to happen...I just wanted to show you that he might not be GOLDEN in today's zone.....

    Kansas City Royals
    Pitchers IP  H  R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
    Z Greinke 5.0 7 5 5 1 5 1 86-57 3.65

     

     

    Millwood is toast today in the Hoye Zone: But he's toast in any zone these days......Here he is on June 26th this year:

    Texas Rangers
    Pitchers IP  H  R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
    K Millwood (L, 5-4) 5.0 12 7 7 3 6 0 91-57 5.08

     

    Here's Guthrie of Baltimore in the Scott Barry (11.20 RPG ) Zone: Yikes!!!!!

    Baltimore Orioles
    Pitchers IP  H  R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
    J Guthrie (L, 3-7) 4.2 7 5 5 5 1 1 107-59 3.71

     

    I hope this helps........

    • Post Points: 5
  • 07-23-2008, 8:17 AM

    Re: THE KING MAKER FOR HUMP DAY: Afternoon Power Play posted...

    Eddings can get you under in Atlanta:

    He's a fine UNDER UMP for you if you need him.....

     

    AN OPPOSING TEAM HAS NEVER SCORED MOE THAN 3 RUNS IN a hudson game with this ump.

    FLORIDA TOTAL RUNS IN THE LAST 3 EDDINGS GAMES: 4,2 AND 2....

    • Post Points: 9
  • 07-23-2008, 8:39 AM

    • loonlvr
    • Top 150 Contributor
    • Joined on 07-17-2007
    • Missouri
    • Prep School
    • Points 4,544

    Re: THE KING MAKER FOR HUMP DAY: Afternoon Power Play posted...

    WHAT  IS YOUR OPINION ON UNDER FIRST 5 INNINGS @ 4   -120

    You stray from the play you will pay
    • Post Points: 9
  • 07-23-2008, 8:45 AM

    Re: THE KING MAKER FOR HUMP DAY: Afternoon Power Play posted...

    loonlvr:

    WHAT  IS YOUR OPINION ON UNDER FIRST 5 INNINGS @ 4   -120

    i DON'T KNOW IF i'M COMFORTABLE WITH 4.

    I noticed a few issues in the periferals, that shoo'd me away...

    I have to step out for an hour or two, but I can dig deeper later.............

    It's doable, M-

    But kinda scary....

    • Post Points: 13
  • 07-23-2008, 8:53 AM

    • loonlvr
    • Top 150 Contributor
    • Joined on 07-17-2007
    • Missouri
    • Prep School
    • Points 4,544

    Re: THE KING MAKER FOR HUMP DAY: Afternoon Power Play posted...

     Thanxs

    You stray from the play you will pay
    • Post Points: 12
  • 07-23-2008, 11:13 AM

    Re: THE KING MAKER FOR HUMP DAY: Afternoon Power Play posted...

    Well, We got a Home Run Right Away...so maybe we can get this!

    Wish us luck! Drake is the Umpire.....I blindly looked at one website, instead of looking at the box score, like I usually do....and made an error. It should affect the wager too much.....

     

     

    The Rangers/White Sox OVER 10 -115 at BetUS

    1-Unit (increase if needed)

     

    Millwood is good for 5 runs today. I think the Texas pen will offer up several runs after Milly is chased.

     

    I REALLY think the AAA kid for Chicago will get rocked as well.

     

    Milwood got destroyed in this strike zone in June, dropping  12 hits and 7 runs in 5 innings under the watchful eye of James Hoye.

     

    Here's the game:

    Texas Rangers
    Pitchers IP  H  R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
    K Millwood (L, 5-4) 5.0 12 7 7 3 6 0 91-57 5.08

    You can take the last three outings for Milly and see that he's pretty horrible right now:

     

    30 hits and 15 runs in the last 3 games is about as bad as you can get....consistancy is the better part of FAILURE!

     

     

    But you need to know about Clayton Richard, Right?

     

    CLICK HERE TO SEE ONE OF HIS MOST RECENT GAMES AND I THINK YOU'LL BE PLEASED

     

     

    In the scouting film you might be able to see a few things that will get him killed in the Majors.

     

    1. He has an awkward hesitation step before he gets into the wind-up, but that's nothing compared to the way he SHOWS the ball to the batter.

     

    2. He seems to throw a VERY hittable ball, and it appears that he may be a horrible fielder.

     

    3. Did you notice at least two home runs in the film????

     

    The kid is VERY hittable.

    The kid is an open book as far as his release point.

     

    Worst of all, they say he has a fine sinker, but you might notice that Millwood is a sinker thrower, and he STINKS in today's strike zone (see above). This zone is not friendly to a sinker baller.

     

     

    James Hoye doesn't allow the LOW Zone!

     

    I'm under the distinct impression that we may have 10 runs by the 5th. I know that may sound goofy, but I think we can get a bunch of action off the starters this afternoon.

     

    If the Ump doesn't help us ,then mother nature will!

     

    Wind Direction Wind Speed
    Wind: From the NNE at 13 mph

     

     

    Back to Millwood for a moment: The guy is toast in this zone and there's a reason why he was tagged for 7 runs in the first two innings in the last visit to this zone.

     

    Millwood segments his pitch selection: In the early innings he sticks to his 4-seamer, SINKER, and Cutter, then he switches to breaking balls in the middle innings, then switches Fastballs if he makes into the 6th or 7th.

     

    He rides the low zone EARLY. Cutter/Sinker

     

    With Hoye's zone, that means he falls behind in the count, and this places the Texas line-up in hitters counts. The low stuff is likely to be called balls. The same applies to Richard.

     

    And this is what we need with an OVER: Projectable Hitters counts!

     

    I can tell you that Millwood should fall behind today. Richard will succumb to nerves and the bat speed of these hitters, (combined with the wind blowing out toward right-center).

     

    We just need the Texas batters to put the ball in play.

     

    On the Wind: The ball has a tail wind today.

     

    "In contrast, a tailwind decreases the drag because the air moves with the ball, and it flies further. A baseball that would travel about 400 feet (120 metres) on a day with calm winds would travel about 445 feet (135 metres) with a 15-mph (25 km/h) wind behind it."

     

    Keith C. Heidorn, PhD

     

     

     

    I really like this OVER and when the books dropped the hook on the total is became a really nice play for me.

     

     

    Good Luck!

     

     

     

     

    • Post Points: 13
  • 07-23-2008, 11:28 AM

    • loonlvr
    • Top 150 Contributor
    • Joined on 07-17-2007
    • Missouri
    • Prep School
    • Points 4,544

    Re: THE KING MAKER FOR HUMP DAY: Afternoon Power Play posted...

    DOES KEVIN SLEEP? MUST BE INSOMNIA. ALL THESE WRITES UPS AND THE KIDS AND NEW INFANT. HOLY FRIJOLE!!!!!!!!!!!

    You stray from the play you will pay
    • Post Points: 5
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