I had a solid 5-1 night last night to get back on track after a few rough days. I hope to keep it going today. I will be back later with more.
3 UNIT PLAY
CINCINNATI -132 over San Diego: The Padres are 3-15 in their last 18 games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-16 in their last 21 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, while the Reds are 31-13 in their last 44 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 10-2 in Arroyos last 12 starts as a home favorite. Bronson Arroyo got off to a horrible start this year, but he has been pitching much better of late. Bronson comes in with a 4-0 mark and a 2.88 ERA in his last 4 starts and he has gone 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA in his last 6 home starts. He is 3-4 with a 3.98 ERA in his career vs the Padres and he is 1-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 1 start vs the Pads this year. Greg Maddux is 14-5 with a 3.40 ERA in his last 19 starts vs the Reds, but he is just 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA in 6 starts at Great American Ballpark. A little side stat on his starts at GAB, He has allowed 10 HR's there in just 32.1 innings of work. Greg has really struggled this year, going 3-8 with a 4.21 ERA overall, including a 2-5 mark with a 6.27 ERA on the road, plus he is 0-3 with a 9.97 ERA in his last 5 starts. The Padre offense comes in scoring just 3.9 rpg in their last 10 games and they score just 4 rpg on the road and 4.1 rpg in day games. The Pads are 12-18 in day games this year. The Reds offense has been good of late, as they have put up 6.1 rpg in their last 10 games overall, plus they also score 4.8 rpg in day games on the year. Bronson has turned his season around, while Maddux is headed the other way . The Reds take the rubber match here. (Winner -- +3 Units)
CHISOX -115 over Texas: The Rangers are 4-14 in Millwoods last 18 starts as a road underdog and 5-12 in their last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter, while the White Sox are 22-5 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 14-5 in their last 19 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, plus the Home team is 11-3 in Hoyes last 14 games behind home plate. The Sox have called up Richard Clayton from AAA Charlotte, where he was 6-0 with a 2.37 ERA in 6 games. He will be facing a Texas offense that has really been struggling on this road trip. Texas comes in with teh top ranked scoring offense, but in the first 5 games of this trip they have averaged just 2.2 rpg, plus this team does not hit lefty starters all that well as they have scored just 4.3 rpg vs them on the year. The Rangers also score just 4.8 rpg and hit just .258 on the road this year. The ChiSox offense has not been sputtering of late, as they come in hitting .336 and scoring 6.9 rpg in their last 7 games, plus they score 5.7 rpg at home and 5.2 rpg vs righty starters. Kevin Milwood has been slumping of late, going 1-3 with a 7.09 ERA in his last 5 starts. Kevin is 2-5 with a 5.18 ERA on the road and 1-4 with a 2.81 ERA in 8 career starts vs the Sox, including a 1-2 mark with a 5.60 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. The rangers offense has taken a vacation at the moment and the Sox offense has not. The Rangers Struggle on the road and the Sox do not struggle at home. Even with te rookie pitcher on the mound I expect the Sox to win the rubber match of this series. (Winner -- +3 Units)
2 UNIT PLAYS
NY YANKS -148 over Minnesota: The Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. American League East and 6-21 in the last 27 meetings in New York, while the Yankees are 40-11 in their last 51 during game 3 of a series and 11-3 in Mussinas last 14 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Yanks are hot right now as they have started the 2nd half 5-0 and they have now won their last 9 in a row at home. Yankee pitching has been awesome in their last 9 at home, allowing just 1.9 rpg over that stretch, while the offense has been solid, scoring 5.2 rpg. The Yanks have in fact scored more runs (20) in the first 2 games of this series, than they have allowed (17) in their 9 game home winning streak. The Yanks have also been awesome in game 3 of a series this year, going 21-5 overall, including 14-1 at home and 9-3 if of a win. Mike Mussina gets the ball for them today and he has been very good thiy year, going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA overall, including a 7-5 mark with a 3.53 ERA at home. Mike kas really bewen rolling in his last 9 starts, going 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA over that stretch, plus he is 10-7 with a 3.53 ERA in his last 21 starts vs the Twins. Glen Perkins has been decent for teh Twins with a 7-2 mark and a 3.84 ERA overall, including a 3-0 mark with a 3.52 ERA on the road, but he was hit hard in his only appearance vs the Yanks this year, allowing 5 ER on 10 hits and 2 walks in just 4 innings of work. The Yanks really play well vs the Twins at home and they are super in game 3 of a series and I expect both trends to continue after this one. Get out the Broom. (Winner -- +2 Units)
Detroit/ Kansas City Under 9.5: The Under is 8-2-1 in Tigers last 11 during game 3 of a series. and 5-1 in Galarragas last 6 road starts, while the Under is 18-3 in Greinkes last 21 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game and 7-1-1 in Greinkes last 9 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, plus the Under is 14-3 in Estabrooks last 17 games behind home plate. Armando Gallaraga has been one of the more consistent starters for Tigers this year, as he comes in with a 3.41 ERA overall, including a 2.65 ERA on the road and a 1.55 ERA in day games. His road starts this year have averaged 8.9 rpg, while his day starts have averaged 7.4 rpg. The KC offense is avergaing 5 rpg over their last 7 games, but just 3.3 rpg in their last 6 games at home. For the year the Royals score just 4.3 rpg at home, 4 rpg vs righty starters and 4.5 rpg in day games. The Detroit offense has been on fire lately, but they still average just 4.3 on the road and 3.7 rpg in day games. Detroit day games have gone 23-12 to the Under with an average of 8.2 rpg being scored. Zach Greinke has pitched very well at home this year, with a 2.39 ERA, plus he has a 3.16 ERA in day games. Zach's starts this year have avaerged 8.4 rpg overall, icluding 7.4 rpg in his last 3 starts and 7.5 rpg in his day starts. Zach also has a 3.39 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Tigers, including a 1.58 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. Both pitchers have been solid this year and should be able to slow down a couple of hot offenses enough to get a comfortable win on the Under. (Winner -- +2 Units)
San Francisco/ Washington Over 8.5: The Over is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 12-4 in Nationals last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400, while the Over is 13-5 in Giants last 18 vs. National League East and 6-0 in Giants last 6 games following a win. Colin Balester has not been a good start for the Nats, as he has a 5.87 ERA in his 3 starts for them this year, with his starts averaging 12 rpg. He also has a 5.06 ERa in 2 road starts, with those games averaging 13 rpg. Kevin Correia has also had a rough time this year, as he has a 5.81 ERA in 10 starts for the Giants, with those games averaging 9.8 rpg, plus he has a 5.26 ERA at home, with those games averaging 10.8 rpg. Also in Kevin's last 6 starts overall there has been an average of 11 rpg scored. The Washington offense has been pathetic for much of the year, but they have been on a roll of late scoring 6.2 rpg over their last 9, including 8 rpg in their first 4 games of this road trip. The Giant offense does come in scoring just 3.9 rpg at home and 4 rpg vs righty starters, but that is ok cause all I need from both teams is 4 runs. Both offenses will also be aided by a wind that's blowing around 13mph straight out to center. Both offenses should easily get 4 runs in this one and that will translate into an easy Over Win. (Winner -- +2 Units)
1 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia / NY METS Over 9: The Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 during game 2 of a series and 7-1 in Myers' last 8 starts vs. Mets, while the 6-0-2 in Maines last 8 starts with 4 days of rest and 12-3 in Maines last 15 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Not a huge writeup on the one, but I will go over some key numbers. Brett Myers has a 5.84 ERA overall, with his starts averaging 10 rpg, plus he has an 8.08 ERA on the road with those games averaging 9.9 rpg. Brett also has a 5.49 ERA in his career vs the Mets, while his last 8 starts vs them has produced 11.3 rpg. John Main has been struggling of late, with a 6.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has a 4.42 ERA overall, with thos games averaging 9.8 rpg, plus he has a 4.01 ERA at home, with those games averaging 10.3 rpg. The Phils offense scores 5.1 rpg on the road and they have scored 5 rpg in their last 7, while the mets put 4.6 rpg on the board at home and they have scored 5.3 rpg in their last last 7 games. Should be an easy Over here. (Push)
I ALSO LIKE
SEATTLE -126 over Boston (Loss -- -1.26 Units)
BEST OF LUCK TODAY EVERYONE
