Purdue (3-9 SU/5-7 ATS in 2016)
May 1 Power Rating: 62.20 (#90)
Returning Starters: 13 (5 offense, 8 defense)
Key Losses: WR DeAngelo Yancey, WR Bilal Marshall, LG Jason King, RG Jordan Roos, DE Jake Replogle, DT Evan Panfil and SS LeRoy Clark
2017 Recruiting Class Rank: #71
2016 Season Recap: Head coach Darrell Hazell came into last season on the hot seat but with 16 returning starters, it was his most talented team yet. After a win over FCS Eastern Kentucky in the opener, the Boilers lost to Cincinnati 38-20 as they were -5 in turnovers. The Boilers rebounded to beat Nevada, but were shockingly blown out by Maryland 50-7. Purdue again rebounded off a loss as they upset Illinois on the road in overtime as 9.5-point underdogs. However, after a 49-35 loss to Iowa, they fired Hazell. At that point, Purdue had actually exceeded expectations in Vegas as they were 3-3 SU despite being favored in only 2 of those games. Gerad Parker was named interim and the Boilers would cover at Nebraska and at Minnesota, but were non-competitive in home losses to Penn St, Northwestern and Wisconsin. In the finale against in-state rival Indiana, the Boilers almost pulled the outright upset as 3-TD underdogs. However, they came up just short as they finished 3-9 and that put them UNDER their season win total of 4.5 (South Point). The Boilers were an underdog in each of their last 9 games by at least 9.5-points.
Offense Per Game Rank
Scoring 24.6 101
Rushing 96.2 125
Passing 294.9 21
Total 391.1 80
Defense Per Game Rank
Scoring 38.2 117
Rushing 238.4 115
Passing 207.4 38
Total 445.8 91
Purdue (SU: 3-9, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 8-4)
|
Date
|
Opponent
|
W/L
|
Line
|
Score
|
Total
|
9/3
|
E Kentucky
|
L
|
-21.5
|
45-24
|
o59
|
9/10
|
Cincinnati
|
L
|
+4.5
|
20-38
|
u59
|
9/24
|
Nevada
|
W
|
-3.5
|
24-14
|
u59
|
10/1
|
at Maryland
|
L
|
+10.5
|
7-50
|
o55.5
|
10/8
|
at Illinois OT
|
W
|
+9.5
|
34-31
|
o52
|
10/15
|
Iowa
|
L
|
+11.5
|
35-49
|
o52
|
10/22
|
at Nebraska
|
W
|
+24
|
14-27
|
u60.5
|
10/29
|
Penn St
|
L
|
+14
|
24-62
|
o57
|
11/5
|
at Minnesota
|
W
|
+17.5
|
31-44
|
o55.5
|
11/12
|
Northwestern
|
L
|
+13.5
|
17-45
|
o58
|
11/19
|
Wisconsin
|
L
|
+27.5
|
20-49
|
o49
|
11/26
|
at Indiana
|
W
|
+21.5
|
24-26
|
u66
|
2017 Outlook: The Boilers return 13 starters led by QB David Blough. While Blough threw for 3,352 yards and 25 TD’s a year ago, he also led the country with 21 interceptions. Remarkably, new head coach Jeff Brohm saw his QB’s combine for only 25 interceptions in his 3 years at Western Kentucky. It’s safe to say ball security will be a point of emphasis.
At RB, the Boilers need to improve a running game that ranked No. 125 in the country averaging only 96 yards per game. They do return leading rusher Markell Jones (616 yards) but keep an eye out for Tario Fuller. The wide receiver position is a concern as they lose DeAngelo Yancey (951 yards, 10 TD’s), Bilal Marshall (477 yards) and Cameron Posey (356 yards). They will bring in a couple of JUCO transfers and get a transfer from Notre Dame in Corey Holmes. All of them are expected to contribute immediately. They also had issues with depth on the offensive line in the spring but their leader is center Kirk Barron.
On defense, the Boilers are in better shape at least experience wise with 8 returning starters. They return 6 of their top 7 tacklers led by LB Markus Bailey (97 tackles). Gelen Robinson is back on the defensive line (61 tackles, 5 sacks) as he moved to DT in the spring. The Boilers also add in Western Kentucky transfer T.J. McCollum (191 tackles last two years) to a LB corps that returns all 3 starters from last year.
On special teams, J.D. Dellinger is back after hitting 8 of his last 9 FG’s a year ago (finished 10 of 14). Punter Joe Schopper also returns after averaging 40.7 yards per punt.
Projected Starting Line-up
Offense:
QB #11 David Blough 6-1 200 Jr
RB #8 Markell Jones 5-11 205 Jr
WR N/A Isaac Zico 6-0 190 (arrives in summer)
WR N/A Corey Holmes 6-1 190 (arrives in summer)
WR N/A Terry Wright 5-11 170 (arrives in summer)
TE #88 Cole Herdman 6-4 245 Jr
LT #78 Grant Hermanns 6-7 293 RS Fr
LG #55 Michael Mendez 6-4 294 So
C #53 Kirk Barron 6-2 305 Jr
RG #60 Eric Swingler 6-5 305 Jr
RT #79 Matt McCann 6-6 324 So
Defense:
DE #11 Antoine Miles 6-3 266 Sr
NT #7 Eddy Wilson 6-4 304 Jr
DT #13 Gelen Robinson 6-1 283 Sr
DE #45 Austin Larkin 6-3 262 Sr
WLB #21 Markus Bailey 6-1 231 So
MLB #4 Ja’Whaun Bentley 6-2 250 Sr
SLB #36 Danny Ezechukwu 6-2 242 Sr
CB #2 Da’Wan Hunte 5-9 185 Sr
SS #5 T.J. Jallow 6-2 198 Jr
FS #27 Navon Mosley 6-0 183 So
CB #24 Tim Cason 5-11 195 Jr
Top 5 Incoming Recruits:
3-star DB T.J. Jallow 6-2 198
3-star QB Nick Sipe 6-4 191
3-star CB Dedrick Mackey 5-11 165
3-star WR Tyler Hamilton 5-9 160
3-star WR D.J. Edwards 6-2 180
2017 Schedule With Early Projected Lines
Date
|
Opponent
|
Line
|
9/2
|
† Louisville
|
+24
|
9/8
|
Ohio
|
-4
|
9/16
|
at Missouri
|
+14
|
9/23
|
Michigan
|
+23
|
9/30
|
Bye
|
|
10/7
|
Minnesota
|
+9
|
10/14
|
at Wisconsin
|
+31
|
10/21
|
at Rutgers
|
+3
|
10/28
|
Nebraska
|
+10
|
11/4
|
Illinois
|
-1
|
11/11
|
at Northwestern
|
+21
|
11/18
|
at Iowa
|
+17
|
11/25
|
Indiana
|
+8
|
Schedule Analysis: It’s not an easy schedule for the Boilers as they open the season with a Top 15 Louisville team (game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis). Ohio is one of the better teams in the MAC and the Bobcats last year beat another bottom Power 5 school in Kansas 37-21. Purdue will only be a short favorite in that game. In Week 3, the Boilers will be double-digit underdogs at Missouri and then open up with Michigan in Big Ten play. After a bye week, they get Minnesota at home. However, they’ll be large underdogs at Wisconsin, at Northwestern and at Iowa in league play. However, the Boilers do get both Illinois and Indiana at home and a cross-over game at Rutgers is also winnable. Overall, I have the Boilers favored in only two games and both are by 4 points or less. However, they are a single-digit underdog in 3 games, so I’d set the Purdue season win total around 2.5 or 3. I’m guessing the books open them up at 3.