West:
G State 13
SA 6.5
Hou 6.5
Utah 4
East:
Clev 6.5
Bos 4
Tor 4
Wash 3
NBA Playoff 'overs':
Overs now stand at 27-21-1, despite the marketplace dealing over/under numbers at historically high levels to START the playoffs. Further, with overs on a 5-1 run we are seeing big inflation already in the two Eastern series:
Wash/Bos
Totals dealt: Game 1: 216, Game2: 217.5, Game 3: 219
Tor/Clev
Game 1: 211, Game2 : 213.5
Hou/Sa
Game 1: 215.5, Game2: 216
Given this, (and I know those who have been betting unders and losing are reluctant to do so, there very likely will be value with unders going forward).
Some key points in each series:
Gst/Utah: Golden State once again let a game cover cover slip through their fingers. Against Portland they were up 16 in the final minute and only won by 12. Last night they were up 18 with just over 2 minutes left and only won by 12. Those garbage points may well continue to mask just how good this Warrior team is, denying them two covers they were in a clear cut favroite to get.
Hou/SA:
Hou is currently -125 to win the series. What makes this number look very short is that I have these teams rated equal. Given two equal teams playing six games on a neutrral court, any given team should go 3-3 or better in six games just under 66% of the time. Thus, you could make a case Hou should be WAY higher than -125 right now!
Wash/Bos:
Teams down 2-0 in the Series this year are 5-0 ATS in Quarter one, and 5-0 ATS in the 1st half. With Wash already dominating both games in the 1st quarter in this series, an early bet on Wash 1st quarter or 1st half makes a lot of sense. However, the odds makers are WELL aware of this trend. Wash is -5 in the game, -3 in the 1st quarter, -4 in the 1st half!
Boston is a much better team when not playing Jaylen Brown, and one could make the case maybe their power rating should be bumped to 4.5 or 5.....
Tor/Clev:
The Cavs are only 3-2 ATS, but at 5-0 SU I think we have to bump them up from 6 to a 6.5 power rating. However, they continue to win with offense, not defense, and because of that they do not have the look of a champion. However, who is going to beat them in the East?
On the handicapping front, I am on a big 3* play TONIGHT in the NBA. There is no doubt the NBA playoffs have been rocky for me, but tonight's play is rock solid and is my biggest bet of the week!
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