531 SOUTH ALABAMA at 532 UL LAFAYETTE
Take: 531 SOUTH ALABAMA +7
I will play against UL Lafayette here. The Cajuns can’t really qualify as an overall disappointment this season, as the reality is their power ranking is about where it was prior to the season. But beyond the power ratings, I think it’s apparent this team has some effort issues. You can pin that blame wherever you want or just disagree with me completely if you wish. But I equate defense with effort and the ULL numbers don’t lie.
The Sun Belt Conference has 12 teams. Using just league games as a resource, ULL is dead last in defensive efficiency. 12th out of 12 in three-point defense, 11th out of 12 in two-point defense, below league average forcing turnovers, below league average in offensive rebounds allowed, etc.
Granted, Louisiana is an up tempo team and their whole deal is to try and outscore the opposition. But if a team can’t get any stops, maybe the style of play needs to be overhauled. Offense might be what makes the Sportscenter highlight reel, but defense wins games.
Current form indicates South Alabama. The Jaguars are off back to back road wins at Troy and UL-Monroe. Louisiana is slumping badly with four straight losses. The Cajuns are a meager 2-7 in their last nine outings and those two wins were games in which ULL had big leads and let the opponent get back into the game.
On the pure numbers, the line is about where it should be tonight. But I’d much rather have the team with the positive momentum against the slumping hosts, especially with a decent amount of points in the mix. I’ll sign up for South Alabama plus the points tonight.
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2* NHL Best Bet loaded for tonight!