Got as* whipped Wednesday, which in reality was overdue. So, I'll share pretty much everything I got here - perhaps some winners for those that were on yesterday, we'll see. Some great season-long discounts available, although after last night.
778 Furman 0.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 777 Chattanooga |
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Analysis: Furman gets a shot a revenge here for their worst loss of the season at T-Chat earlier this season. T-Chat spent the night on the FT line, and what's interesting is that they were out-rebounded on the offensive glass by Furman, and turned the ball over a few more times. Chattanooga has a really bad loss at home to VMI, and although they've won on the road, not necessarily in convincing fashion. Furman just won three straight conference road games, and at home HAD been blowing people out. I don't expect they'll blow T-Chat out - it'd be nice - but I do expect them to win. They ARE in first place in the Conference and have played a tougher conference SOS than T-Chat. They have a better defense and a more efficient offense. That's all I got.
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Duke/UNC: I guess the question on most peoples' mind is which Duke team we see. Historically these teams have not had huge issues winning on each others' home court, and just about every team that's beaten Duke this season has been up tempo, a case for the Heels. UNC hasn't really had an overly impressive road win, but some "decent" ones. UNc has a slight length advantage and a deeper bench, but in ACC play their shooting % is down across the board. The key is probably going to be on the glass, where UNC seems to have an advantage - Duke has the advantage at the stripe, and is of course at home where they'll get their share of calls. The market this morning seems to want to favor the Heels a bit, but I'd certainly want +3. I do think that they stay under - there's not much chance that Duke wants the track meet, my concern is Duke's turnovers which will/can lead to quick UNC points. Since I think the game will be one by the team that plays defense, I like UNC and under. That's almost a given since these high profile games typically don't go favorite/over.
Purdue/Indiana: It's always tough to bet against Indiana at home, but they have just been turning the ball over far too much for my liking. That's not to say that the trend continues since Purdue is not a pressure defense. The Hoosiers are clearly the far more desperate team - but I really think they're suffering from a soft non-conference schedule. Since both teams rely heavily on the three ball, it should come down to who makes them and who defends them. Purdue has the #1 three point defense (%) in Conference play, Indiana is near the bottom. Purdue is a GREAT FT shooting team - so inasmuch as it pains me to take a road favorite, Purdue, mainly because Indiana's defense just sucks. The caveat is clearly the Hoosiers' youth, which could do just about anything. I do think this is a high scoring game, but a tough one.
Oregon/UCLA: The Ducks won the earlier game in Oregon by two. They shot lights' out from everywhere, with numbers that would be very tough to replicate, even against Coppin State. The Ducks rely heavily on the three ball (typically) and UCLA just doesn't get to the line nearly as much as they should. They remind me of some Ohio State teams - perhaps soft. So, we've got the #1 offense in the Conference (UCLA) against the #1 defense (Oregon) - here's what it comes own to, IMO - the bench, and the Bruins' bench is shorter (much), so, UCLA 1H and Ducks for the game.
Temple/SMU: Temple hasn't lost a game at home by seven points this season, which includes a game against Cincinnati. They were destroyed at SMU earlier this season - I've bet against SMU and keep waiting for the Larry Brown-less team to stumble, but they haven't. Temple's path to victory is clear - make three point shots or don't. The one thing perhaps in Temple's favor is that SMU has a home game this weekend against Cincinnati, the one team in AAC play that's beaten them. Temple has some size, both benches are very short - I can make a case for Temple but I'd want +7.