Sunday, Feb. 5th
Super Bowl LI
Patriots (-3, 58) vs. Falcons - 6:30 pm ET (FOX)
New England has a history of playing close and competitive Super Bowls with all six appearances being decided by 4 points or less during the Brady/Belichick era. New England faced the weakest schedule in the league this season and my power ratings only make the Patriots a 1-point favorite tonight. However, New England holds a substantial experience edge and also possesses the better overall defense which should enable them to win this game.
Three props just missed the cut. I would lean Under 4 total sacks, but this line has dropped to 3.5 in some locations. No safety -1000 actually has some value, and despite the big price, should be much higher since neither QB makes many mistakes. Donald Trump picks Patriots to win in the pre-game TV interview is almost a certainty since he is close friends with New England owner Robert Kraft and QB Tom Brady. Lowest current line is -950 which is worth a look, but most other sportsbooks have it much higher around -1800 which has taken away the value.
Best Bet in Super Bowl 51 is the Over/Under winner available here: /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=223439#capper