Sunday, Jan. 15th
NFL Playoffs
Packers at Cowboys (-5.5, 52) (4:40 pm ET, FOX)
My power ratings make Dallas -5, so this line is right where it should be. The weather forecast is calling for rain, especially during the second half of this game.
Green Bay has been one of the hottest teams down the stretch as they are on a 7-game winning streak. Unfortunately for the Packers offense, they lost wide receiver Jordy Nelson to a rib injury in last week’s game. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has much better career numbers when Nelson is on the field, and with this game on the road, Nelson’s absence may have a bigger impact on the outcome. Overall, Green Bay is averaging 27.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season. The Packers’ defense has been their weakness, especially on the road where they are giving up 28.2 points per game on a horrible 6.7 yards per play.
Dallas won 30-16 in Green Bay back in October, and they did so by dominating the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys ran for 191 yards in that game, and that will likely be their game plan once again. The Dallas offense has been terrific all season while averaging 26.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 22.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. The Cowboy’s defense has allowed 19.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents that average 21.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.
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My strongest Best Bet for Sunday (Steelers/Chiefs) is available here: /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=223439#capper