Saturday, Jan. 14th
NFL Playoffs
Texans at Patriots (-15.5, 44) (8:15 pm ET, CBS)
My power ratings make New England -14.5, so despite the large line, this number is really not that inflated. Only three other teams have been a bigger playoff favorite and they went 3-0 SU/ATS. Houston is an excellent defensive team, but they are a horrible offensive team which limits their little backdoor cover potential once they get behind in this game.
Houston beat Oakland 27-14 last week, but the Texans faced a Raiders' offense with a rookie quarterback (Connor Cook) making his first NFL start. Now Houston is taking a monumental step-up in class against Tom Brady in this game. Houston’s defense has been good this season as they only give up 20.1 points per game on 5.1 yards per play (versus opponents that average 23.2 ppg and 5.7 yppl). However, the Texans’ offense has been terrible, averaging just 18.0 points per game on 4.8 yards per play (versus defenses that allow 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play). In fact, the Texans have the worst TD/game ratio of any playoff team in the past 80 years.
New England beat Houston 27-0 back in September, and they did so with backup QB Jacoby Brissett under center. The Patriots’ offense has been terrific all season while averaging 27.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23.0 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. New England’s defense has been stifling, especially at home where they only give up 15.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.
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