Saturday, Jan. 7th
NFL Playoffs
Raiders at Texans (-4, 37.5) (4:35 pm ET, ESPN)
My raw power ratings make this game a Pick'em, but that number assumes full health for both teams. That’s not the case as Oakland is without QB Derek Carr and top lineman Donald Penn, while Houston will play QB Brock Osweiler after Tom Savage got injured. Osweiler was the original starter, but he was recently benched, so that creates an interesting dynamic for the Texans.
Oakland went 12-4 SU during the regular season, but that record was somewhat phony. The Raiders were not a 12-win team based on statistics. Oakland’s offense averaged 26.0 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 23.0 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. Keep in mind those numbers were with QB Derek Carr under center. The Raiders will now rely on third-string QB Connor Cook who will be making his first career start without the team’s starting left tackle on the road in the playoffs against a very good defense. Oakland’s defense was below average this season as they gave up 24.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only averaged 23.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play overall.
This is the first time in NFL Playoff history during the Super Bowl era (past 51 years) that a quarterback will be starting a playoff game after not starting a single regular season game during his career. Connor Cook played the majority of the game last week at Denver, after Matt McGloin was injured. Cook was decent, completing 67% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass with a 83.4 QB rating. Cook has only taken the majority of the snaps in one other game this season and that was during the Preseason in Week 4 against Seattle's backups. Cook was terrible in that game, averaging just 4.8 yards per pass with a 50.0 QB rating.
Houston went 9-7 SU during the regular season, and one of those losses came in Mexico City against the Raiders. The Texans’ offense was terrible all season no matter who was under center. Houston only averaged 17.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. Houston’s defense was terrific as they only gave up 16.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play at home this season.
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