Monday, Jan. 2nd
NCAA Football - Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs. Oklahoma (-2, 67.5) (8:30 pm ET, ESPN)
This is the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, Louisiana. My power ratings make Oklahoma -4.5, so there is some value on the Sooners as this line continues to drop lower after opening at -5 last month. However, Oklahoma is just 1-3 SU/ATS in bowl games the past four years, including losing outright by 34 and 20 points the past two seasons as a favorite.
Auburn averaged 32.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 27.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season. The Tigers’ defense was outstanding all year, giving up only 15.6 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 27.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play overall.
Oklahoma went 10-2 SU with both losses coming way back in September. The Sooners have a potent offense that averaged 44.7 points per game on a whopping 7.6 yards per play versus defenses that allowed just 29.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. However, Oklahoma has a weak defense that gave up 38.3 points per game on 6.6 yards per play away from home this season.
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