Each week this season, we’ve been posting computer projected lines at pregame.com. It was our first year of doing computer projected lines so we didn’t have any past data points to see how the projections would do against the Vegas lines. We’ve actually been quite pleased with the results. Games where there has been of difference of more than 3 points has seen our computer lines beat the Vegas line at a 105-80-3 (57%) clip so far this season. That’s pretty solid and actually better than our own handicapping (much to our dismay). Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
The Computer column is the computer projected line and the Difference column is the difference between the Vegas line and the Computer line. “+” numbers in the difference column say back the underdog. “-” numbers in the difference column say back the favorite. Let us know if you have questions.
Note player suspensions and injuries (Stanford McCaffrey out, etc) and coaching moves have impacted these computer projections in the last two weeks and they have been accounted for in the computer number.
Game |
Line |
Comp |
Diff |
43 Northwestern |
|
|
|
244 Pittsburgh |
-5.5 |
-6.58 |
-1.08 |
245 West Virginia |
|
|
|
246 Miami, FL |
-2.5 |
-2.31 |
+0.19 |
247 Indiana |
|
|
|
248 Utah |
-7 |
-7.81 |
-0.81 |
249 Kansas State |
|
|
|
250 Texas A&M |
-2 |
-0.9 |
+1.1 |
251 South Florida |
|
|
|
252 S Carolina |
+10.5 |
+6.71 |
+3.79 |
253 Arkansas |
|
|
|
254 Virginia Tech |
-7 |
-5.74 |
+1.26 |
255 Oklahoma St |
|
|
|
256 Colorado |
-3 |
+0.76 |
+3.76 |
257 TCU |
|
|
|
258 Georgia |
PK |
-2.93 |
-2.93 |
259 North Carolina |
|
|
|
260 Stanford |
-2.5 |
-1.59 |
+0.91 |
261 South Alabama |
|
|
|
262 Air Force |
-13.5 |
-15.08 |
-1.58 |
263 Nebraska |
|
|
|
264 Tennessee |
-6 |
-6.39 |
-0.39 |
265 Florida State |
|
|
|
266 Michigan |
-7 |
-2.13 |
+4.87 |
267 LSU |
|
|
|
268 Louisville |
+3 |
+3.38 |
-0.38 |
269 Kentucky |
|
|
|
270 Georgia Tech |
-3.5 |
-3.11 |
+0.39 |
271 Washington |
|
|
|
272 Alabama |
-14 |
-12.52 |
+1.48 |
273 Ohio State |
|
|
|
274 Clemson |
+3 |
+0.52 |
+2.48 |
275 Iowa |
|
|
|
276 Florida |
-3 |
-4.11 |
-1.11 |
277 Western Michigan |
|
|
278 Wisconsin |
-8 |
-7.35 |
+0.65 |
279 USC |
|
|
|
280 Penn State |
+6.5 |
+5.02 |
+1.48 |
281 Auburn |
|
|
|
282 Oklahoma |
-3 |
-3.08 |
-0.08 |