Each week this season, we’ve been posting computer projected lines at pregame.com. It was our first year of doing computer projected lines so we didn’t have any past data points to see how the projections would do against the Vegas lines. We’ve actually been quite pleased with the results. Games where there has been of difference of more than 3 points has seen our computer lines beat the Vegas line at a 104-79-3 (57%) clip so far this season. That’s pretty solid and actually better than our own handicapping (much to our dismay). Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
The Computer column is the computer projected line and the Difference column is the difference between the Vegas line and the Computer line. “+” numbers in the difference column say back the underdog. “-” numbers in the difference column say back the favorite. Let us know if you have questions.
Note player suspensions and injuries could impact these computer projected lines and I'll do an update each week on them during bowl season.
Bowl |
Line |
Computer |
Difference |
201 UTSA |
|
|
|
202 New Mexico |
-7.5 |
-8.99 |
-1.49 |
203 Houston |
|
|
|
204 San Diego State |
+4 |
+1.44 |
+2.56 |
207 Arkansas State |
|
|
|
208 Central Florida |
-6 |
-3.1 |
+2.9 |
209 Appalachian St |
|
|
|
210 Toledo |
-1 |
+0.99 |
+1.99 |
211 Southern Miss |
|
|
|
212 UL - Lafayette |
+6 |
+1.64 |
+4.36 |
213 Central Michigan |
|
|
|
214 Tulsa |
-13 |
-10.39 |
+2.61 |
215 Memphis |
|
|
|
216 Western Kentucky |
-5 |
-4.53 |
+0.47 |
217 BYU |
|
|
|
218 Wyoming |
+9 |
+10.64 |
+1.64 |
219 Colorado State |
|
|
|
220 Idaho |
+13.5 |
+11.5 |
+2 |
221 Eastern Michigan |
|
|
|
222 Old Dominion |
-4 |
-4.48 |
-0.48 |
223 Louisiana Tech |
|
|
|
224 Navy |
+4.5 |
+1.97 |
+2.53 |
225 Ohio |
|
|
|
226 Troy |
-4 |
-5.41 |
-1.41 |
227 Middle Tennessee |
|
|
|
228 Hawaii |
N/A |
+2.75 |
N/A |
229 Miami, OH |
|
|
|
230 Mississippi State |
-13 |
-14.91 |
-1.91 |
231 Maryland |
|
|
|
232 Boston College |
+1 |
-2.23 |
+3.23 |
233 Vanderbilt |
|
|
|
234 NC State |
-4 |
-4.13 |
-0.13 |
235 Army |
|
|
|
236 North Texas |
+10 |
+9.72 |
+0.28 |
237 Wake Forest |
|
|
|
238 Temple |
-11.5 |
-11.2 |
+0.3 |
239 Washington State |
|
|
|
240 Minnesota |
+9.5 |
+9.08 |
+0.42 |
241 Baylor |
|
|
|
242 Boise State |
-7.5 |
-7.35 |
+0.15 |
243 Northwestern |
|
|
|
244 Pittsburgh |
-5.5 |
-5.58 |
-0.08 |
245 West Virginia |
|
|
|
246 Miami, FL |
-3 |
-2.31 |
+0.69 |
247 Indiana |
|
|
|
248 Utah |
-7.5 |
-7.31 |
+0.19 |
249 Kansas State |
|
|
|
250 Texas A&M |
-2 |
+0.6 |
+2.6 |
251 South Florida |
|
|
|
252 South Carolina |
+10.5 |
+8.21 |
+2.29 |
253 Arkansas |
|
|
|
254 Virginia Tech |
-7 |
-5.74 |
+1.26 |
255 Oklahoma State |
|
|
|
256 Colorado |
-3 |
+0.01 |
+3.01 |
257 TCU |
|
|
|
258 Georgia |
-1 |
-2.43 |
-1.43 |
259 North Carolina |
|
|
|
260 Stanford |
-3.5 |
-3.59 |
-0.09 |
261 South Alabama |
|
|
|
262 Air Force |
-13 |
-14.58 |
-1.58 |
263 Nebraska |
|
|
|
264 Tennessee |
-3 |
-3.39 |
-0.39 |
265 Florida State |
|
|
|
266 Michigan |
-7 |
-2.13 |
+4.87 |
267 LSU |
|
|
|
268 Louisville |
+3.5 |
+4.38 |
-0.88 |
269 Kentucky |
|
|
|
270 Georgia Tech |
-4 |
-3.61 |
+0.39 |
271 Washington |
|
|
|
272 Alabama |
-15 |
-12.52 |
+2.48 |
273 Ohio State |
|
|
|
274 Clemson |
+3.5 |
+0.02 |
+3.48 |
275 Iowa |
|
|
|
276 Florida |
-2.5 |
-3.86 |
-1.36 |
277 Western Michigan |
|
|
|
278 Wisconsin |
-7.5 |
-6.35 |
+1.15 |
279 USC |
|
|
|
280 Penn State |
+6.5 |
+4.77 |
+1.73 |
281 Auburn |
|
|
|
282 Oklahoma |
-3 |
-4.08 |
-1.08 |