We split our NFL bets Sunday - the first non-winning Sunday in a while, but we remain in the NFL black - I will add more games when the lines come out, and the free play later in the week. Adios for now. Oh, we do have basketball packages up - I forgot about the obligatory solicitation.
Washington/Cincinnati: Another London game. The Redskins seemed to be the trendy bet against the Lions, as was the over - neither of them cashed. In hindsight, it's interesting how Washington could go from a team nobody wanted money on early in the season to a road "trendy" pick, which clearly was wrong. Many also felt that game would go "over" but again, in hindsight, nearly 70% of the tickets were ON the over yet the total closed where it opened. Washington DID outplay Detroit in most phases of the game - but turnovers, as usual, are costly. The question(s) going forward for me are - how does Washington mentally respond to a last second loss, and are those problems (turnovers) fixable or systemic. The Bengals did what they were supposed to against two rookie QB's - Kessler and Hogan, but one would expect them do have done even better. What's surprising to me is that the total opened higher than I'd have expected (46.5) - what's not surprising is that the Bengals opened -2 and it's -2.5 (or -3 at Bookmaker). I suspect it vacillates most of the week - I lean Redskins, still simply refusing to trust Marvin Lewis. It's almost like many people's view of the election - who do you distrust the least.
Green Bay/Atlanta: I actually thought the Falcons would beat the Chargers - and it's almost time that Atlanta do their mid-season swan-song, perhaps. That second-half collapse was eerily reminiscent of so many of their games over the last few years, and that comes when I was starting to trust them/Quinn. The Falcons errors were failing to capitalize in the Red Zone (again, teams with a good TE are good in the Red Zone - see Chargers, 3-3) and of course nine penalties. Neither of those things are fixable on short notice, IMO - and the very fact that they opened the Falcons as -2.5 (essentially saying the teams are equal) is telling. They ARE -3 many places but that does give me pause with the Packers having ten days off. Every Atlanta game cannot go over the total - so in the end the public sides may well be the Falcons/over so I am almost inclined to blindly take the Packers and under - since I trust Green Bay to make adjustments quicker than I trust the Falcons to.
New England/Buffalo: Obviously most know that the Bills handed New England their only loss - a brutal beatdown at Foxborough without Brady or Garoppolo. That Bills' loss in Miami was quite predictable given the spot for the Bills - one game before the "rematch" and after the New England game the Bills travel TO Seattle and TO Cincinnati, so we'll find out quickly who Buffalo really is. The Patriots did indeed win (and cover) at Pittsburgh, but there were a great deal of uncharacteristic mistakes by New England, mainly in the form of dropped passes - and the Steelers' defense showed teams how to play the Patriots. Typically teams that have given NE trouble have just pressured the sh*t out of Brady whereas the Steelers did quite the opposite, something I don't think NE was prepared for or adjusted to very well. I'll put it this was, I doubt I can convince myself to lay -5.5 (or whatever it closes at) on the road here. It's the Bills GOY and their true measuring stick, and after the Dolphin loss, a must-win. If NE DOES win they can seriously distance themselves in the AFC East - but this may be a better one to watch. I do lean over a bit - but admit to not having looked to see if there's lake-effect snow yet :)
Oakland/Tampa Bay: I was one of the semi-lemmings who thought the Jaguars may well beat Oakland, which also goes absolutely against my decisions not to take sh*tty teams I cannot trust. I suspect people will look at the Bucs game here and think that there is no way the Raiders can win two games in Florida in seven days - especially with the Bucs having a long flight back from San Francisco. In hindsight to the Jaguars game, I simply didn't give enough weight to Del Rio's return. In the Jags game, the Raiders and J'ville had very similar stats - the exact some offensive yards, but yet again - turnovers and missed chances in the Red Zone cost Jacksonville the game - the couldn't convert third downs, and Oakland could. Sometimes, it IS just that simple. I do trust Winston more than Bortles (actually, I think I trust every QB more than Bortles) - so it probably is the Bucs or nothing - at least this early in the week. The game opened a PK and is now Bucs -1. So, early $ on Tampa Bay (remember it doesn't take much money to move a line early in the betting cycle), and that total sitting at 49 might be too high - both defenses are somewhat under rated IMO.
Chiefs/Colts: The Chiefs opened as -3 road favorites - a number that's already gone and not likely to reappear, all things being equal. Kansas City held New Orleans to 21 points, which is impressive regardless of the venue, and the Colts came back to beat the Titans on the road, and any come-from-behind road win in the NFL is a good win. Given that the Chiefs method of operation is to run the ball, that could play into the Colts hands given their secondary weakness, OR the Chiefs could change things up - and knowing how Kansas City wants to play is the key here for me. The Colts have played themselves back into contention in the AFC South, or the rest of the teams have let them back in, depending on your perspective. It would still be hard for me to not take the home underdog here - but I'd clearly want (and pay for if need be) +3. Statistically Kansas City's win over New Orleans was classic Chiefs. Alex Smith only had to throw 24 times, they were massively outgained, and seriously lost the time of possession battle. But, they won. I think even their efficiency won't get them over the hurdle on the road.