CHARGERS at FALCONS
Take: CHARGERS +6.5
This is one of those not so in depth pieces. Sometimes I like to go into fairly minute detail when breaking down a game. But this is simply a case of obtaining what I perceive to be value with the underdog.
I know the Chargers are 2-4. I also know they’re really not very far away from being 6-0. San Diego has had a very bad habit of squandering fourth quarter leads and it has cost them dearly. But when you look at all the numbers, it’s pretty clear this is a team that stacks up favorably with most of the teams in the NFL. Those giveaway games might end up killing them as far as staying in playoff contention is concerned. But it’s also true that because the standings read 2-4, I’m able to get perhaps a point or two more than I ought to be getting with this team. I definitely think that’s the case on Sunday.
The Falcons are off to another fast start at 4-2, but unlike last season when their September was a fluke, this Atlanta version is playing at a high level. I’m not buying their defense particularly. But the Falcons have themselves a dangerous offense, and while it’s often an overlooked aspect of a team, the Atlanta special teams are a plus as well.
I made this number a bit less than where the oddsmakers have it. I’ve got Atlanta winning the game outright, so I can’t necessarily say the value is off the betting line. But I really feel as though this line is going to come down some between now and post time. It’s mostly 6.5 currently, but the indicators I like to focus on suggest to me that this number will drop rather than rise. I would not be shocked at all if we’re looking at 5.5 by game time. I would absolutely be stunned if it goes up to -7.
So you can probably see what I’m doing here. I like the Chargers to compete in what has a good chance to be a tight battle. But I really like the idea that by taking the Chargers now at +6.5, I will very likely be getting the best of it from an odds perspective. That’s good enough for me, so San Diego is the play.