179 VANDERBILT at 180 GEORGIA
Take: VANDERBILT +14.5
There’s always at least a little reluctance to back Vanderbilt in any role. That’s because the Commodores are, to put it diplomatically, a bit challenged offensively. More than a bit, actually. Vandy is just plain lousy when it comes to getting the football into the enemy end zone.
But Vanderbilt is a very respectable team on defense, and I think this might be a pretty good matchup for them. Georgia has its own issues on offense. The Bulldogs have some terrific talent at running back. But they’re really kind of a one-dimensional attack right now as the quarterback play has been pretty mediocre.
Freshman signal caller Jacob Eason is very well regarded, but there just isn’t any question that the talented freshman is suffering some major growing pains. His accuracy has been erratic, and the simple truth is his QB rating right now is unimpressive.
I’m just not seeing all that much from this Georgia team. The season opening win against North Carolina was nice, but the Bulldogs were trailing by ten in the third quarter before a very shaky call against the Tar Heels completely changed the flow of the game. Georgia was almost upset by Nichols State, they beat a so-so Missouri team by just one point, and they were blown out by Mississippi State. Georgia was on the wrong side of that insane finish against Tennessee, although that might have been their best performance of the season to date. The Bulldogs did get a 14 point win at South Carolina last Sunday, but the score that locked up the game was on a TD on an onside kick with just over one minute remaining.
The Commodores have a slight scheduling advantage due to the fact that Georgia has to play on Sunday this past week due to the hurricane. But the key for me is simply the number. Based on my team ratings, it’s just too high. My calculations come up with Georgia -10.5, so there’s decent value on the underdog at the current number, which I expect has a good chance to drop a tad between now and kickoff. I’ll look to side with Vanderbilt plays the points in this one.
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2* CFB Best Bet up now for Saturday