Made a little Friday. Made a little Saturday. Gave it all back Sunday - we remain slightly up in the NFL - but clearly adjustments need to be made. Free play here _________ later.
Houston/Minnesota: Vikings obviously on a short week and probably won't be a line til Tuesday, or late Monday. Houston won and covered at home over Tennessee in what looked on paper like a reasonably high scoring game - the fact of the matter is the fourth quarter was scoreless and ten points in the third quarter. I'd be a little concerned about Houston here since they still cannot run the ball and Osweiler had a couple of picks against the Titans - so what will he do in Minnesota? The Vikings opened -6 in Vegas - offshores have yet to put up a line - waiting for MNF results. I tend to think it stays below the magic number of 7.
Tennessee/Miami: The Dolphins on extra rest and one would be inclined to take them here - but after how inept their offense was two weeks ago against Cleveland and obviously against the Bengals, that might be tough. Let's not forget the allowed 430 yards to the Browns, something I cannot forget and will for me to NOT take Miami here. But, Mariota was 13-29 against the Watt-less Texans with no TD's and a pick - but perhaps most imporantly is that nearly a third of his yards came on one pass to Rishard Matthews. Combine that with the fact that the Titans allowed a punt return for a touchdown - (which makes me like Houston at Minnesota even less) and I'd have to look seriously at the under here. Tennessee had eleven penalties in the Texans' game - something ELSE that's a no-bet for me. Miami opens -3.5 with a total of 44, which as expected is already down slightly.
New England/Cleveland: Everyone knows who will be back under center - but the person New England will get back that's going to go unnoticed by many is Ninkovich. The Patriots defense put very little pressure on Taylor and I suspect that game plan changes in Cleveland. The Browns longest completion against Washington was 14 yards - New England did NOTHING well against Buffalo - and I mean nothing. What may piss them off a bit more was the officiating, and not that it would have changed the outcome, but there were several penalties on Buffalo that should have been called and weren't - most notable a late hit on Brissett - an a series or two later NE was called for a late hit on Taylor that was fairly questionable. Obviously the line will reflect all of the above, but New England may cover it anyway. I suspect Bill is quite upset at his defense - although they only allowed 16 points - it WAS that bad. The Patriots open -10 road favorites, but that's still not enough for me to take the Browns. The total is 46.5/47 - and what might be a good bet here is the Browns TT under.
Jets/Steelers: Well, what we do know is that two very good defenses in Kansas City and Seattle both made Fitzpatrick look really, really, bad. The good that we might take from the Jets, or look at when we get to Seattle, is that New York held Seattle to 3-10 on third down conversions. Although Wilson was very efficient - Seattle only rushed for 66 yards - the Steelers have more weapons than Seattle, Pittsburgh doesn't have the defense the Seahawks do - so I like this game to go over. After the Pittsburgh domination of the Chiefs both the Steelers and the total may open even higher - and there is no way I can take the Jets after watching their last two games - and losing on the both weeks. I do know that the value always swings - but I'd rather pass a winner should the Jets rise to the occasion that take a chance that they MIGHT.
Washington/Baltimore: A very tough loss for the Ravens who expended a ton of energy coming back, and I do wonder what that does to them emotionally going forward. If they weren't reasonably well coached I might hold that against them. Washington beat the Giants and could have lost to the Browns - were it not the Browns - the 'Skins missed a ton of tackles. Baltimore had 412 yards against Oakland, 130 of them on the ground - Flacco threw the ball 52 times which might be somewhat inflated trying to come back. However, if they're a shadow of that they may well beat Washington as soundly as the last couple of teams could have. Baltimore had the ball 34 minutes in that game against Oakland, holding Oakland to 261 yards and losing - they had ten penalties and missed an extra point, and those are how you lose games. Honestly at this point it's hard to make a case for either team. The Ravens open the obligatory -3.5, which is expected. Above -3 and not much more so as to entice early Redskins money. It seems like the books still have no respect for the Ravens - and think the Redskins CAN get it done. The total opened 47 and came down a tick, and I have to wonder if that isn't an early setup move - I don't agree with it.
Philadelphia/Detroit: The Lions go from road favorites at Chicago to home dogs against a rested Eagles team that everyone is high on and that we're going to pay for. Cantor's look ahead line for this game before the season started was Lions -1 - and honestly I thought it'd be higher than that. If Stafford can only throw for 200 yards and two picks against the Bears - it's hard for me to think he'll get THAT much better against the Eagles. If the Lions let Hoyer throw for 300 yards - Wentz could have a field day. However, that's conventional wisdom which isn't always that easy. Detroit hasn't been able to run the ball, Riddick had 11 carries for 31 yards at the Bears. The Lions were 4-12 on third down conversions, and had ten penalties. So, I doubt the Lions will try very long to establish the run - like the over here, as easy as it might look.The Eagles open -2.5, which is also as expected since many people would instinctively grab a home dog at +3. It may go there anyway, IMO - and the total of 47 is something I think is doable for an over.
Bears/Colts: It's usually the case that teams playing in London get the bye the following week - I liked the Jags quite a bin in that game - which wasn't as close as the score indicated as Indianapolis scored 21 points in the fourth quarter. Aside from the one long completion to Dorsett the Colts didn't stretch the field, and I don't think they can - Jacksonville just took Hilton out and held him to 42 yards on seven catches - I suspect the Bears try the same thing, as the Colts just don't have the weapons and I don't think Gore can carry a team for an entire game. Although I do think the Colts try to establish the run for as long as it takes - so the under looks good here. Hoyer isn't likely (assuming he plays again) to have a 300 yard game - even against the Colts. If Cutler plays I can assure you that even with the travel I'll take the Colts. They're a very desperate team. The Bears might be too, but they didn't have the expectations the Colts did - and Indianapolis DID hold Jacksonville to only 3-11 on third downs - something I put a reasonably amount of stock in. The Colts open at -4 and it goes right to -4.5 so it seems as if the early bettors agree with me.
Atlanta/Denver: I liked the Falcons over Carolina but clearly didn't bet them, although it was in my update notes Sunday morning. Now I think Atlanta could go, in a matter of weeks, from under rated to over rated. Most know I do like to fade teams in the 2H in Denver when the air gets to them - on the other side, Denver has been on the road for two weeks, the last one in very hot Tampa Bay - so their conditioning might be a bit effected, too. Ryan and the Falcons are NOT going to hang 48 on Denver, and the rejuvenated Talib played for the Bucs and knows the Falcons pretty well. What is getting better, and I said that under Quinn eventually it would, is the Falcons defense - they held the Panthers to very little til Anderson came in during pretty much "containment" time for Atlanta. So, perhaps this total is a bit too high. The Broncos open at -6 and the early bettors grab the key number. I think I'd wait to see who is under center for Denver although it seemingly doesn't matter. Sooner or later Denver is due for "one of those games" but until they do, I can't bet on it. With the Falcons defense starting to gel and Denver's defense being what it is - under is perhaps the best bet.
Buffalo/Los Angeles: Having watched Buffalo take care of New England, I don't think they can possibly play much better, or get the breaks (non-calls) again. So, given their huge win over New England the traveling to LA who they simply cannot get as high for, I can see a Bills letdown here. With that in mind, the Bills defense is playing well, and we know LA struggles to score - so I don't see a ton of points here which I doubt I'd see that any differently no matter what the Rams do in Arizona. The Rams open as -2.5 favorites which is exactly what you'd expect, staying under -3, but at some books Monday morning it went to -3. The total of only 40 is obviously tempting to think it goes over, but if Buffalo couldn't "finish" drives against NE I don't see them finishing at LA. It's tough for me to back Jeff Fisher and his ridiculous challenges - but it's the Rams or nothing for me.
San Diego/Oakland: Clearly once again the Raiders will be the very public bet and I'd suggest if you like Oakland you bet them sooner rather than later because I do see this one climbing even higher. I'm a bit concerned with the Raiders defense - we keep saying Mack will get a bunch of sacks and they'll come around, but even though they beat the Ravens, they gave up a lot of yardage, and I don't see that changing against the Chargers, with or without Keenan Allen. This one might be an "over" bet. San Diego has got to be thinking "here we go again" with the expectations not being met, and of course Oakland is about as full of confidence as any team in the NFL right now. The total opened 52.5 and has already been bet down a fair bit, and there's part of me that thinks that it will go right back up at some point. I can't take this under - and laying -4.5 almost seems too easy, but it IS a division opponent with absolutely nothing to lose. However, Oakland or nothing at this point.
Dallas/Cincinnati: We all saw pretty much exactly who the Bengals were last Thursday against the Dolphins. Even with the extra rest, they've got a lot of work to do - they really, really, need Eifert and honestly I can't bet them til he's back. He is everything in the Red Zone, as most good tight ends are to their team. Dallas playing late on the West Coast and perhaps getting somewhat fortunate playing a late PM game in Cincinnati. Dallas opened -1 at home - and early Monday Pinnacle went to PK - inasmuch as it would be tempting to take the Bengals - Dallas perhaps has the better QB right now, the better defense, and is at home. I like Dallas to get it done.
Giants/Packers: Short week for the Giants and playing another NFC North team on the road - Packers off of a bye, and I still worry about their defense. They allowed 23 to Jacksonville on opening day and 27 to the Lions who couldn't score on the Bears. I'm hardly suggesting taking the Giants here - but this game could be one of the more higher scoring games, and if I'm going to find anything I like about the Giants it's probably their defense. Again, offshore books are waiting for MNF to put up a line, Vegas has -7 which looks like it's going to go to -6. So, if you have the inclination to take the Giants, now is probably better than later. People will buy +7 which is likely to come down - then either get off of the good number or look to middle it later if the line sets itself up for that.