315 CENTRAL FLORIDA at 316 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Take: CENTRAL FLORIDA -7
It hasn’t been very good for UCF over the last season and change. The Knights did open the season with a victory over an FCS opponent, but they haven’t won vs. an FBS opponent since December of 2014. There’s an excellent chance that unfortunate streak finally ends this Saturday.
The losing streak actually started in a bowl game at the end of the ’14 campaign, when UCF lost a close game to North Carolina State. But it was 2015 when things came apart for this program, and the very first loss last season was a 15-14 loss to these Golden Panthers. Central Florida led the game 14-3 at the break, and then proceeded to get blanked in the second half en route to an eventual 15-14 upset loss. It was all downhill from there for UCF. The Knights lost all of their remaining games and were generally not very competitive.
Scott Frost is the new head coach at UCF, and while he has little chance of turning the program around immediately, he’s already getting what appears to be better effort from his players than they displayed last year. UCF is 1-2 with the win coming against South Carolina State. But I thought the Knights showed some fight at Michigan in game in which they were simply overmatched, and UCF just missed this past Saturday vs. Maryland, losing in two overtimes.
While bouncing back from a very tough loss can be difficult, I believe the Knights will be very focused to get some revenge against FIU, and they match up well with the Panthers. UCF wants to go run heavy on offense, and that strategy should be something they can implement against a pretty soft looking FIU rush defense.
What’s interesting is that each team here has already played and lost to Maryland. I don’t think there’s any question the Knights played the Terrapins much tougher than did the Panthers. Fact is, if not for losing the turnover battle badly with Maryland, Central Florida would be playing this game off a win. FIU was never in the game in their home matchup with the Terps.
The loss to Maryland was devastating as the Knights were three yards away from a win before their freshman QB fumbled. But the comments after the game from the losing side were encouraging and I do not expect the hangover syndrome to be a factor here.
The statistical matchup is clearly favorable to UCF in terms of the numbers I like to key on, and I absolutely think the revenge factor is in play here. If this goes the way I think it will, the road team will be in ground and pound mode against a host that won’t stop them to a great extent. I like Central Florida minus the points in this one.
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3* CFB Game of Week is up for this Saturday!