In 2016, the NFL Rules Committee blundered badly and changed the kickoff rule, calling for a touchback to result in the ball awarded at the 25 yard line. The idea seemed to make sense, when returners get the ball in the endzone, it now makes sense to just take a knee. Therefore, the committee concluded that this will make the game safer.
The MAJOR flaw in this logic is that the kicking team is not going to just give the other team the ball on the 25. Every team is going to quickly conclude that by kicking the ball higher to around the goal line, the average starting field position for the opponent will likely be somewhere between the 20 and the 24.
Ok, so we will see many more kickoff returns, and injuries, and likely an average starting field position at the 22 or 23. What's the big deal?
The big deal is going to come from the variance.
We are now going to see some long kickoff returns. Some fumbles. Some holding calls pinning the team down to the 8. All of this is bad for 'UNDER" bettors, as I can argue the optimal place to put the ball for an under is around the 20 yard line for an offense.
This rule change makes a lot of formerly solid props questionable. No score 1st 7 minutes and 1st quarter UNDER 7.5 bets suddenly become much more dangerous. You will likely see maybe a doubling of Touchdowns scored in the 1st 2 minutes of a game from this rule alone.
An even more extreme impact is that the most savvy teams will realize it is more valuable now to be receiving a kickoff. Given this, in close calls a team now should go for it and NOT kick a short fg. Frankly, this was ALWAYS true, but with the new rules, it is even more true. let's do the math if you have 4th and goal from the 3.
1) A fg is worth 3 points, but the opponent having the ball on the 23 is worth almost a point, so the fg is really only worth 2.
2) A Td is worth 7 points, but really only worth 6.
3) A failed 4th down, sticks the other team on their 3. That is worth about -1.5 to -2 points to the new offense to be stuck so deep.
These assumptions have bizarre revelations ...............TAKING a knee on 4th and Goal Or kicking a fg are worth about the same...........now we can tweak some of these values a bit, but the conclusion is clear. You MUST go for it 4th and goal if you will make it even 1/4 of the time or more........
What do you guys think? Do you agree with my conclusions?
I am STILL reeling from my 3* loss on KC today, and disappointed with a bad 1st week result in the preseason because of it. I have been doing this for a long, long time. 6.3 unit swings on Hail Marys happen. We just work hard, get great bets, and keep firing........I will be releasing three CFB Season Wins best bets Tomorrow at 9am PST, and then will be getting to work on my favorite preseason week, Week 2 (Hall of Fame Weekend is week0).
Your best chance to win is to sign up with a handicapper(S) and get his annual package. NOW is the time to do so, and I cannot emphasize enough, do your best to eliminate the short term variance, and look to bet steadily over the course of the year.