Here’s my Friday free play, and I’ll be going with the ML/RL combo here.
TIGERS (Pelfrey) @ BLUE JAYS (Happ)
Take: BLUE JAYS -1 (-165 ML/+115 RL)
It’s official. The Blue Jays are hot. They’ve gotten the sticks going, the pitching continues to be better than what many expected, and this team is right back in the thick of things in the AL East.
Mike Pelfrey doesn’t figure as the guy who can tame the Toronto bats. Pelfrey is actually not even a #5 starter, but the Tigers haven’t had much choice but to keep sending him out there while hoping for the best. I can’t see Pelfrey being able to get through this lineup without incurring damage along the way.
The J.A. Happ roll is still gong strong. Happ is very simply outperforming his metrics. Those figures are actually pretty mediocre for the most part. But Happ’s results continue to be outstanding, and that’s what really counts. The southpaw has won each of his last five starts. The Blue Jays are 12-5 in the games Happ has worked this season. Going back to the finish of the 2015 campaign, the team is 20-7 when Happ takes the mound.
Feel free to debate whether Happ has been a luck box or not. The bottom line is that he’s doing enough to give his team a legitimate chance to win far more often than not, and that’s really the key for me. If Happ can give the Jays six frames tonight while limiting Detroit to three or four runs, I’ve got to think Toronto will be able to get enough off Pelfrey to be in good shape.
The price on this game is naturally pretty high, so this will be another game where I create a -1 line by splitting my play into two pieces, half on the money line, and half on the runs line. I’ll be on the Blue Jays to win for the seventh straight game.
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My MLB Grinder Best Bet is loaded for Friday.
Good luck today.