The Wednesday free play was a loser on the underdog Diamondbacks. Arizona had several chances but too many swings and misses with men on base did them in, and the Blue Jays flexed their muscles with some long balls. Thursday’s slate is a bit abbreviated, but here’s one I have an opinion on.
PADRES (Friedrich) at REDS (Lamb)
Take: PADRES +102
I’ll call this game pretty close on the pitching. Both Christian Friedrich and John Lamb are what amounts to finesse lefties. Each throws in the 90 range, neither blows away anyone with his stuff. Friedrich has the slightly better numbers overall among those I put the most focus on, although current form is basically a wash.
I make the offense and the bullpen the keys here. The Cincy relievers have shown some improvement lately after being historically awful for two months, so it’s not a slam dunk to fade them late anymore. But I’d still rather trust the San Diego pen guys if it’s close toward the finish.
The bigger deal is the massive differential on splits for the Padres. They’re pretty feeble against righties, but this team has put up some very good numbers against lefties, and they’re facing a very average southpaw tonight. I therefore have some faith the Friars can get at least a few runs on the scoreboard tonight.
So with what I’ll call a pitching lean on Friedrich and the Friars getting to hit against a low-end southpaw, I think San Diego is worth a bet as long as they’re plus anything on the money line. They are currently plus a few pennies, so I’ll make the Padres the Thursday comp.
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My 1st CFL release this year is up for Friday's action.
Also, today is the last chance for my MLB Bridge Access to start of NFL.
I'm +12.70 units in MLB this season and this MLB Bridge Access is the best way to follow.
Good luck today!