What else is new, right? The Nationals led the Dodgers 2-0 heading to the bottom of the eighth. But there was that nagging feeling of deja vu as the team had let numerous chances to extend the lead go by the boards, and I’ve gotten unhappily very familiar with late game melts. Sure enough, moments later Yasmani Grandal bombed one out with two men on base, and that was that for the Nats. Here’s Wednesday’s free play.
DIAMONDBACKS (Ray) at BLUE JAYS (Happ)
Take: DIAMONDBACKS +155
I make today’s Diamondbacks-Blue Jays interleague battle being a close call on the analysis. That’s where the price comes into play, as I see Arizona having a good deal of value with the number on this contest being as high as it is.
JA Happ gets knocked from sabermetrics number crunchers. His W/L record going back to the second half of last season is downright spectacular. But when examining several of the Happ peripherals, it’s not outrageous to suggest the veteran lefty has had Lady Luck smiling at him on a regular basis.
I won’t got the knock Happ route. He’s consistency done well enough to give his team a good chance to win, and his game scores for the season are above average. Believe me, I’ve been very much a metrics guy over the past several seasons. But I’ve also come to realize that the ability to hang in and find ways to win might ultimately be more important, and Happ has been dynamite as far as that goes.
Robbie Ray will be on the mound for the Snakes today. He has become somewhat predictable in that when his command is good, he’s a very tough lefty. When Ray struggles to find the strike zone, his pitch count explodes and he ends up having to work behind in the count. That’s when bad things happen to Ray. The good news is that Ray seems to be figuring things out. I’ve been very impressed with his last two outings, each of which included just one free pass. I have little doubt that Ray will still throw in the occasional clunker, but I think it’s fair to say that I’m beginning to have more confidence in him at this point.
I like the idea of backing a hot team catching a nice price, and that’s certainly the scenario here as the Diamondbacks are playing their best ball of the season right now. Granted, the first four wins in their current 5-0 run came against the reeling Phillies. But Arizona has now won eight of its last ten and they’ve actually been a pretty good road team all season.
The Blue Jays had been on a tear with seven wins in eight games, and the offense was really coming together for this Toronto team. But the Jays have now dropped three in a row, and while Happ dominated the Phillies in his more recent start, he was roughed up in the prior two.
I make Toronto the favorite in this game, but not by nearly as much as the Blue Jays are currently priced. So I’ll go with the Diamondbacks as a live dog with a nice price tag to get the upset this afternoon.
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