The NFL season Wins market is up in several places, including the Westgate in Las Vegas. The highest total on the Board on the GB Packers at OVER 10.5 wins -150. Carolina, New England, Pittsburgh and Seattle are also lined at 10.5, but those teams are all at vigorish close to -110 on the over.
The Season Wins market shows a tremendous shift in the betting markets. Ten years ago, we would see several teams lined at 11.5 and even 12 wins in the NFL, and there was great opportunity to play UNDER on these bets, with a great deal of parity in the NFL.
Fast forward to 2016, and the "sharp" betting markets have reacted to 25 years of clear 'parity' data, and adjusted. The best teams are lined at 10.5 wins, the worst non Cleveland teams at 6 wins (Cleveland is at 4.5 to 5). Every year Football outsiders' model projects a large regression to the mean, and they usually have every NFL team projected to win 6-10 games, and the bettors read and bet these projections.
It all makes great sense, until you look at what has been happening the last 5 years in the NFL. There is little to no parity. The good teams and organizations, with good QBs just keep winning 11+ games, and the 'sharps' following these old school "bet the highest numbers UNDER" have gotten destroyed. Seemingly EVERY year, New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, Green Bay, and Sea are projected to win their divisions, and they do just that, and/or win 11+ games.
I really think the season wins' market has gotten so 'sharp' that it is beyond square, shading the best teams down to 10.5 (from a previous 11.5, ten years ago). The right answer on most of these teams likely was 11+ wins, and with each 1/2 win worth about 50 cents the betting marketplace has way over adjusted these numbers to the point that you have made money blindly betting every NFL team with a season win of 10 or more OVER.
I see similar things going on in other markets. The Ohio State Buckeyes opened 8.5 wins at one shop this year. Does ANYONE think Ohio State won't win 9+ games?? Further The Cubs in Reno this year opened 89 wins, 93 wins in other places. They are going to win 107 games, and make those 'sharp' low lines look silly.
NFL season wins numbers still average out to 8.1 wins or so, meaning the numbers ARE slightly inflated. However, the teams with win inflations are NOT the top teams, but rather the other teams. I truly think the best value is to look at the non contenders, and selective find teams that are lined at 6-8 wins, and fire on those teams UNDER. I expect to have some big NFL season win releases in late June, as soon as the market is liquid.
In other sports, I am FIRING tonight an two best bets, NBA and MLB. Jump on board tonight, with THE two bets I bet the most on!
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