DIAMONDBACKS (Ray) at CARDINALS (Leake)
Take: DIAMONDBACKS +130
Nothing particularly in depth or revealing with this call. It’s basically just the math up and down the line and what I’m perceiving as accompanying value in the betting line.
I’ve got Robbie Ray with a starting pitcher advantage over Mike Leake. It’s not a landslide by any means, but Ray ranks higher on my list by a little bit. The bullpens are actually pretty close, with the Redbirds owning a slim edge, but actually not a significant one.
On offense, I have the check mark on the Arizona side. That’s with the lefty/righty splits figured in, to be sure. Once again this year, the Redbirds are simply not especially proficient at handling southpaws. That should give Ray a decent shot at getting in six or so quality innings today.
Let’s also give the small sample check mark to the Arizona side. They’re doing a great job on the road this season, and surprisingly, the Cardinals are struggling some at home through the season’s first quarter.
This is an all about the value play for me. I make the Cardinals the chalk on my data, but it’s more like -120 than the actual current line. I do expect this number to come down from where it presently is, so chances are getting in early will be beneficial. But at +130, it’s a relatively easy decision for me, and I’m taking the Diamondbacks.