MARINERS (Iwakuma) at REDS (Straily)
Take: MARINERS -129
This year’s Seattle Mariners have been road warriors, and I’ll be hoping that tendency is maintained this evening as they open a series at Cincinnati.
I’m pretty impressed with the Mariners series win at Baltimore. The Orioles have been very tough at home and Seattle was heading east off a disastrous home set with the Angels. If ever a team seemed ripe to possibly hit the skids for a bit, it was the Mariners. Instead they took two of three from the Orioles and now have a chance to keep things rolling against the Reds.
The toughest aspect of this call is backing Hisashi Iwakuma, who has been less than reliable through the season’s first quarter. But all I really need from the veteran righty is a reasonable showing this evening, something along the lines of six innings and three runs. Anything better is a bonus, I’ll settle for a bare minimum quality start from Iwakuma.
The Seattle offense has a chance to do some damage tonight. Dan Straily has been adequate for the Reds, but some of that has been good fortune. Even assuming another decent game from Straily, chances are very good I’ll get three or so innings against the absolutely ghastly Cincinnati bullpen. This is an historically horrendous relief corps, and the whole idea is to simply be even against the Reds through six innings. Accomplish that, and basically whatever team the Reds are facing then assumes the role of favorite.
As for Straily, his career tendencies are pretty clear. He simply gets solved on the third trip through the opposition batting order. Take a look at his numbers on pitches 1-75, and he’s adequate. Once Straily gets past that 75 mark, the decline is significant. Combine that with the ineptitude of the Cincinnati pen, and the results are fairly predictable.
I think this line is dirt cheap at roughly -130 and I have to think it’s going up as the day progresses. So this is a game I’d have to suggest should be played early in the day to attain the best value. In any event, I’ll look for the Seattle side to pick up another road win, while also extending the latest Cincinnati losing streak. Lay it with the Mariners tonight.
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