ORIOLES (Jimenez) @ RAYS (Odorizzi)
Take: ORIOLES +115
Tampa Bay continues to have its share of trouble plating runs, but the two they managed to get across on Monday night proved to be enough as they blanked the Orioles. Tonight, it’s the latest version of the always entertaining Ubaldo Jimenez Experience as the Baltimore righty challenges Jake Odorizzi.
Let’s cover the clear cut advantages right off the bat. The Orioles haven’t been crushing it lately, but there’s no question the Birds own the offensive edge against the Rays. Tampa Bay has managed to score more than three runs only five times to date. That’s one check for Baltimore, and the O’s get another one with the bullpen. If you’re into trends, I’ll have to point out that the Orioles were not good off a shutout loss last season, while the Rays did well coming off a shutout win. But I still like the team data wins on the visiting team’s side tonight.
The pitching matchup is pretty interesting, as Jimenez is not the easiest guy on the planet to handicap, thanks to his erratic tendencies. That’s something one has to simply accept as a great unknown in virtually every start he makes. Meanwhile, Odorizzi has been tough at the Trop for the most part. So on the surface, it probably seems like advantage Odorizzi.
But I’ll try to break down the early 2016 form to make my case for Ubaldo. The data is fairly close on a number of counts. What I call my true ERA is based on a compilation of a number of analytics, and I have Jimenez about a quarter run better than Odorizzi through the first few starts of this season. Both guys have had some BABIP bad luck, although in the case of Jimenez, that .386 is begging for some correction.
Another stat I like to look at is hard hit rate on batted balls, and here’s where there’s a red flag on Odorizzi. He’s at 39.7% thus far, and that could be a problem against the power-laden Orioles this evening.
The big concern with Jimenez is always the walks. He’s going to issue some free passes, that’s a given. The key will be whether he spreads them out, in which case he should be fine, or clusters them, in which case I’ll be in trouble.
Adding everything up, this is a game where I ended up with the Orioles as slight favorites. So as usual, if I can get my favorite, even a minimal one, at an underdog price, I’m generally going to end up making the play. Truth is, this is mostly a 50/50 proposition over the long haul. But as the plays using the guidelines are all dogs, 50% is a figure that will yield substantial long term profits on the money line. I’ll hope the good Ubaldo shows up tonight and if he does, I’ll have a strong chance to knock down a winner with the Orioles.
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