I ended the NBA season with a solid winning night winning both of my big plays. This momentum carried into the playoffs where I started 5-1. The last three days I have not won an NBA game despite playing multiple games each night. Last night, I actually went 3-0 on MLB releases to my Bet Like A Pro Program while I was going 0-2 in the NBA.
By the end of the night I was getting the texts. "I know your MLB was horrible last year Fezzik, but after the last 3 days, maybe you should start really ramping it up in MLB, and forget the NBA".
The reaction to short samples to me is over hyped. When a poker player goes ALL with QQ vs. ak he has the better of it......it is the same as having 10 super solid sports selections, but he can still go 1-9 on those next 10 "coin flips". The sobering truth is that you really cannot tell much from a guy who goes 7-1, or 2-9, or 3-0. Those streaks are going to happen over and over and over for a 50% OR a 55% handicapper. Yet, I continue to get messages "You HAVE to bet ObiWan's Soccer, he is 4-0 this week!"
As a handicapper and pro bettor, to be successful I have to hit well over 52.4% of my selections. My goal is to put out solid selections that have positive expectation. I will have 10-1 runs, and I will have 1-8 runs. However, if I make selections that win at more than 53.5%, the winning will take care of itself, but the streaks will be there. Kenny Uston was a great blackjack player. Early in his career he was running good. a teammate told him "Those bad runs are out there Kenny.....you have to expect them at times".
I WILL admit, that a 54% handicapper can and will at times be "seeing the ball great" when he is red hot. So I won't call streaks completely random. However, the bottom line is, I would far prefer to bet a guy who is 54% over a three year period (and is on a 3-9 run) than a guy who is on a 8-0 hot streak.......
I have won every year I have been at pregame. 2016 has has been choppy, and I am up +2 units YTD on all selections. Let's get on a win streak going forward, and get this year well into the black!