The Twins were a cinch winner as the Thursday free play. I’ll go for what I see as a decent value dog for the Friday comp.
969 INDIANS (Tomlin) @ 970 TIGERS (Verlander)
Take: INDIANS +122
The numbers tell the story loudly and clearly. Justin Verlander is still good enough to get by, but he just isn’t anywhere close to a staff ace anymore. Up and down the charts, he’s a league average guy these days. There might be the occasional glimpse of what used to be, but that’s more an inning to inning than game to game deal. That’s not a rip on Verlander. It’s just the cruelty of time passing and diminishing skills.
To illustrate, I now have Josh Tomlin actually rated higher than Verlander. It’s actually a virtual wash on my rankings, but I’ve got Tomlin a tick superior. That’s something I never thought I’d see. But the truth is that while Verlander is declining, Tomlin is managing t exceed earlier projections I had and he’s gone from a back of the rotation afterthought to perhaps mid-rotation level.
So, right off the top, that makes for okay value on Tomlin here. Other aspects offset one another. I give Detroit a slight bullpen edge as their late inning guys should be fresher than the Tribe counterparts. On the other hand, while the Motown offense is obviously quite capable, I don’t think they’re measurably better than what Cleveland will trot out tonight, particularly with the Tigers throwing a righty. If there was a southpaw on the hill for Detroit, it would be a different story as the Indians aren’t much against lefties.
Without going into specifics, there’s also an okay road dog angle that fits here. It’s not a slam dunk huge winner, but it is a consistent profit producer that has a tendency to be at its best in the early portion of the season.
I make this game a tossup. Pretty much a 50/50 proposition. And that’s the beauty of baseball betting, as hitting 50% on underdogs translates into some really nifty profits. The value here looks to be on the Indians getting in excess of 6:5 odds, so I’ll be taking the Cleveland side tonight.
--
My 3* MLB Game of Week is loaded!