Golden State. San Antonio. Ok City. LA Clippers.
Four teams that have pretty much know for months they would be the no1, no2, no3 and no4 seeds. Yes, Golden State was chasing down the NBA 73 win record, but here we had four solid teams that were pretty much in cruise control throughout 2016, without any games that truly would impact their seeding. The odds makers had solid power rankings on these teams that worked well for the second half of the season. However a big part of those power rankings assumed teams having workmanlike efforts night in and night out.
Meanwhile, the bottom four Western teams were jockeying for the playoffs and for position. This meant they went more ALLIN on most nights, as every win was important.
The Playoffs started,and it is clear the top 4 all had a 2nd gear they could shift into, while the other teams were already pretty much maxed out. This resulted in the big 4 going 4-0 SU and ATS, and frankly none of the games were close to the spread. Bettors recognized the openers were bad, as they bet all four games up.
Can we make money off of this betting favorites going forward in 2016? Not in game 2s. Historically teams that get smashed game 1 come back strong zig-zag style ATS game 2. Further, all four of these home teams are looking at point spreads that are at least as high as the game 1 closers, despite being in bad historical situations. Therefore, despite what we saw game 1, it's time to possibly play contrarian and maybe search for value on the Dogs game 2 in the West.
If we want to bet the West big 4 later in the series, we likely root for a miracle upset SU in one of the four game 2 games, and if that hits (Portland?), then we can likely come back with the Clippers game 3.
Note, the betting marketplace still loves Golden State, they are currently -150 to win it all, with the Field +130 at the South Point and the Westgate. Those numbers seem optimistic to me, especially with Curry having to leave game 1 with an ankle issue. However, Golden State at -120 looked cheap to me one month ago, so taking +130 may not be quite enough value, especially when you consider that the price on them may go even higher after they sweep the Rockets round 1.
The NBA playoffs have started well for me, with me hitting both of my larger releases. Tonight, I step up with TWO 2* Best bet plays. Good luck to all!
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