As some of you know, I was part of a locally filmed short Movie "Life On the Line" which documents sharp bettors attacking the Super Bowl, and how they approach it. You can watch this 52 minute piece for free:
http://bit.ly/1S383cm
With the Super Bowl 3 days away, it may well be the optimal time for you to watch this one! Highlights of the Movie:
1. Winning and having fun don't parlay well.
Their are great bargains to be had betting the Super Bowl. however, those bargains typically happen early and late in the betting cycle. Beating the props often means getting to the great numbers 1st......or alternatively fading the public who will be betting irrationally on some items, and you can come back just before kickoff to fire away. However, that often requires rushing to a locals book, waiting in line for 30 minutes, and frantically betting close to post. It's a lot more fun just going to a SB party!
2. Sometimes there is no "pro side".
I will argue Carolina -3.5 was one fine bet against the opener. And Denver +6 the same. Given this, I think it is way too simplistic to currently say "the pros are on Denver, the public on Carolina". I firmly believe the Pros were on Carolina -3.5, and the Pros were on Denver +6. I made the line 4.25, and as it nudges lower, I am becoming a firm believer ALL the bets betting made at a spread of "5" are negative EV. (I still think it's aok to have an opinion and a bet on the Super Bowl.....I just think be aware that it is very likely it has a negative EV).
3. A solid theme in Super Bowls has been slow starts.
The market never seems to reflect this enough. Given this, if you like "under" I think you should consider bets like 1h UNDER, 1Q under, etc. If you like "over" I think hold back some money and look to fire "OVERs" maybe during the 2nd quarter in live wagering.....
4. Don't get buried playing "fun" longshot bets.
I still remember a Denver/SF Super Bowl where a good customer held up a $100 Sammy Winder to score 1st ticket at 5-1. Don't make 20 longshot bets on things like this! The needle in the haystack bets are fun to make, but you can EASILY go 0-10 betting 10 things that are priced +250, +500, +1000, +2000, etc. The house makes an obscene amount on bets like this.......don't play Keno with your your hard earned dollars.
5. Don't make all your prop bets based on how you think the game will play out.
The side and total simply are not that far off in this game! It's easy to say "I think Carolina will win 37-14!", and bet props accordingly. However, realistically, assume Carolina will win 25-20 as your starting part, and price your props accordingly....
6. The Props DO have the best value.
It is just not possible for there to be 400 props on the board, and for some of them to not be priced wrong. Aggressively attack where their is Value and fire. Recognize the bets the public is going to JAM HARD on things, and look to fade the irrational line moves on these!
Some bets to consider ON SUNDAY that fall into this category?
i) NO OT (public LOVES YES)
ii) Yes -3 straight scores (public LOVES NO at + money every year)
iii) Any bets on big name players (I would expect Cam will get money across the board on rush yards, pass yards, passing TDS, etc).
Good luck to all this Super Bowl 50! My SB Prop Package is UP, and I will be adding props during the weekend!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY