539 EVANSVILLE @ 540 NORTHERN IOWA
Take: 539 EVANSVILLE +1
I won’t go so far as to label Northern Iowa a flop, but it’s fair to assess the Panthers season to date as a pretty good sized disappointment. UNI has a couple of nice wins on its ledger, having defeated both North Carolina and Iowa State. But this team has never really out it together and they limp into tonight’s game with a pedestrian 12-11 record, including a somewhat shocking 4-6 in MVC play.
Evansville was supposed to be pretty solid this year, and the Purple Aches have actually been even better than that. They’re 18-5 overall, 7-3 in league play, and Evansville appears to have a pretty good shot at making a case for an NCAA at-large invite if they take care of business down the regular season stretch.
I have this circled as the biggest remaining game on the slate for Evansville. They should be favored in all their pending battles, so a win here and this team at a 26-win campaign. Even minus the so-called signature win, the Aces would have to be a strong consideration by the committee if they win out.
This looks to be a good matchup for Evansville. Northern Iowa simply hasn’t been a particularly effective team on defense this season. Unless the Panthers get it together tonight on that end of the court, the Purple Aces are likely to get some good looks at the basket, and there’s not much question about Evansville’s ability to put the ball in the basket.
Looking at the stats, Evansville wins both the offensive and defensive efficiency battles. The Purple Aces were no match for powerful Wichita State over the weekend, but unless there’s a hangover from that game, I would expect this team to get right back on track tonight. Northern Iowa is obviously capable of winning this game and if the Panthers are sharp, I might be in trouble with my play on this game. But the black and white says Evansville is simply the better team at this juncture and I’ll be happy to take my chances with the Purple Aces as small road underdogs.
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