Weekend marginal - brutal loss on the Suns last night - we move on.
L'ville/UNC: Can't ignore the UVA loss - can't over react. Cardinals have fared better against teams that run (as UNC does) and have had trouble with more methodical teams. UNC is indeed 8-0 in Conference play but hasn't really had tough road games yet. That starts now - teams split last season - L'ville beat the Heels in the ACC Championship. Neither team is going to beat anyone from behind the arc. Too many ticket on the Heels to this point with little or no line movement. Cardinals and under.
SMU/Houston: Love to find a way to back a home underdog any chance I get, but SMU is a cover machine and Houston is too inconsistent for my dollar. They played a double OT at East Carolina Saturday to fatigue should set in in the 2H. Houston's weak non conference schedule is starting to show, IMO. They may have some early energy and this could be a classic Houston 1H/SMU 2H bet. My final reason I can't take Houston is that they're shooting 60% from the line in Conference play. They've got a a slight length advantage - but SMU is just too efficient and undersized against most teams which hasn't mattered. They did play SMU tough here last year - as a much weaker club - but fading SMU hasn't been kind to me. SMU has played the worst Conference schedule - so - doubt I want much to do with this one. Yet. Might be value in the over at this point, opened at 148 and is now 141. I'd expect bettors to come back with the over that were fortunate enough to bet early - large middle chance.
Texas/Baylor: I suggested to long term clients that they take Texas at BetOnline at +6 yesterday - Texas has been playing much better of late as apparently Smart has them all on the same page. Baylor's defense is actually last in the Conference in efficiency and Texas' is first. As tough as it is to fade Baylor, I like Texas here.
Noles/Wolfpack: FSU beat NCST at their place this season and it was probably NSCT's worst loss this season - of the many. They beat Miami badly over the weekend which is what people will remember. I can't take NCST with their often anemic defense on the road - although BOTH teams are turnover prone - which would preclude and "over" for me - although if it's the 'Pack turning it over, FSU will run - so, lean Noles here.
NBA:
Dallas hurt us last night, but that final quarter might give them confidence facing Atlanta, who played on the road last night and has lost five of six. At +6 I like the Mavericks here. Atlanta beat them on their court in early December and Dallas may well return the favor here.