Nebraska-Omaha coughed up a pretty good sized lead at Oral Roberts, but the Mavericks gathered themselves down the stretch and notched the win as the Saturday free play. I’ll go the marquee matchup route for the Sunday comp.
843 PURDUE @ 844 IOWA
Take: PURDUE +3.5
We’ve arrived at the point of the college basketball season where there will be an increasing number of rematches taking place. I’ve always paid very close attention to same season revenge spots in college hoops, and I’ve generally enjoyed a good deal of success isolating the right spots as far as this goes.
A key for me is measuring how meaningful the revenge variable might be. In other words, I’m not just blindly betting on the team that lost the first meeting to avenge the defeat in the rematch. But there are some good statistical edges that I’ve put into play with good results and then there are games like today’s second time around between Purdue and Iowa.
The first game between the Boilermakers and Hawkeyes was, in effect, a weird doubleheader. Purdue completely dominated the first 20 minutes, amassing a 19-point lead and heading off the court with a 37-20 lead.
But after halftime, it was if the Boilermakers decided the game was over and they proceeded to get obliterated by the Hawkeyes. Iowa outscored Purdue 50-26 in the second half, and the Boilermakers were humbled on their home court in the process.
I don’t think there’s much question about what Iowa coach Fran McCaffrey will go with here in terms of a game plan. Defensive pressure was the game changer in that January 3 clash and it’s not broken, then don’t try to fix it.
As for the Boilermakers, they need to do what they didn’t do in the collapse that took place in the first game. Purdue has to attack the Iowa defense. The absolutely did little of that during the epic melt and paid a very unfortunate price.
We should find out quite a bit about this Purdue team today. Regardless of the final score, it’s vital for the Boilermakers to have an aggressive attitude for 40 minutes in this game. If they get mentally dominated as they did during the disaster that took place at West Lafayette, I don’t think it bodes well for the Boilermakers down the road. If they stay in attack mode throughout the game, that’s a positive that will tell me this outfit is for real, even if they come up short on the scoreboard.
For me, this comes down to taking points with an avenging opponent I expect to see play with tremendous intensity, and while there will be those who disagree, I also think the Boilermakers match up really well against the Hawkeyes. Iowa is generally a bigger team than most opponents but that’s not the case here and Purdue is also the more physical squad.
The Boilermakers will likely lose the possession battle here as Iowa is simply outstanding when it comes to ball security and Purdue really doesn’t force many turnovers. But Purdue is as good as it gets at making life miserable for opposing shooters and I can see them dominating the glass here. This should be a terrific game, and I’m taking the points with Purdue in what ought to be a thriller.
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My 2* NFL Conf Championship Best Bet and CBB Grinder are up for Sunday!