We swept CFB again last Saturday, the Hurricanes would have covered regardless - and the free play on Iowa State won. GOY won - Cowboys won. Royals won. It was a lot of fun. Looking back at my notes, I think we'd have had more good guesses and bad ones in this thread. We'll have some sort of a 3* this weekend - can't have another GOY this week. We'll, I suppose we could if we got creative. Under advisement - free play here _____________ when we get to that point.
Baylor-K-State: Opened at 16 and this afternoon (Monday) they're buying -17 at Pinnacle. Unsure how to read that yet - it takes far less to move a line early. Either way, laying those points on the road, especially in a stand-alone (sort of) game isn't an option for me. This is the Bears' third road game, the other two were SMU and Kansas, so that's another reason I can't fire - Wildcats have lost their offense, but more intriguing to me is the amount of points they've allowed. So, one would think "over" - but winning that bet probably relies on K-State scoring SOME. The Bears have Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU in the next three weeks, so if ever there was a bad scheduling spot, this could be it. We've made a ton of money on football the this season betting ON teams that have ZERO to lose, and that's the Wildcats. But, that will take conviction.
Buffalo-Kent: Not long ago you couldn't get anyone to bet on the Bulls, now after winning a couple they're road favorites. This is the same Bulls team that almost beat BGSU, but that was at home. If we take Buffalo, we're asking them to win two road conference games in six days, which is never easy. Kents' been downgraded by bettors after getting beaten soundly (48-0) at home against BGSU (the same team that killed Buffalo almost beat) but that's also had two weeks to prepare, or rebound, if you will. Kent lost at home to Marshall - by only 7, and only lost at Minnesota by three (only allowing 10 points) - and they beat UMass on the road, so I can't overlook them getting points at home, assuming perhaps BGSU was the "perfect storm" matchup. That total came out at 47 today and quickly went to 49, so figure out who that might favor and there's your winner, perhaps.
Arkansas State-App State: After a couple of meh years when the legendary Jerry Moore retired, App is apparently rebounding nicely this season under Satterfield. Some of that may well be due to him having more of his own players now, which is not uncommon. They had beaten all comers handily (save Clemson) until Troy took them to overtime last week. App and the R-Wolves are both 4-0 in the Sun Belt conference - over these Red Wolves (one over GSU but they beat GSU head to head) - so this is not unlike the Gators game against UGA in that it's essentially for a shot at their first "semi big boy" title, since they came from the SoCon in 2014. App started out their inaugural (last year) Sun Belt season last year by going 1-5 and losing at home to Liberty - then proceeded to win their last six, including a game AT Arkansas State. We liked the R-Wolves early in the season because they played SoCal and Missouri - now, they are about to play three straight road games - and this will be their first actual test, IMO (South Alabama does not count). Normally I'd love to take the generous points here - and they (Arkansas State) CAN score, but a quick check on the points they've allowed and to WHOM doesn't set well with me on the road. App has seen this spread/triple option offense for years playing Ga Southern, actually, so I don't think the "over" will be quite that easy, although it (the total) just opened at 62, which is lower than I expected, so now or never on that, IMO.
Ball State-Western Michigan: WMU clearly and obviously is the better team, and benefiting greatly from playing Michigan State and Ohio State in the early part of the season (that pays huge dividends when a MAC team plays a Power 5 conference team that doesn't want to be there in a Bowl game, just sayin'.) In this thread last week we did like the Cardinals, citing serious disrespect for them with the "sharps" on Umass. Ball State "only" lost by 18 AT Northern Illinois - but the takeaway from that is they scored 41 points. With that in mind I'd look at the over, which opened at 61.5 today is very quickly went to 63.5, so I'm not the only one thinking that way - but could be the only one looking at a worse number. I do know we've said and done well playing on teams with nothing to lose, but last years' game might have some bearing. Although WMU won the game, they were down 31-14 at the half, and scored 14 unanswered points on the road to win by four. WMU no doubt remembers that (of course Ball does, too - but there's this talent thing) and won't want to expend that much 2H energy, so I do like them 1H here - under 1H - and over 2H.
Mississippi State-Missouri: Ouch, the Tigers. We know their well-documented struggles both on and off the field - not my thing to think about laying 8 (or so) points in a game that has a total of 39 and dropping, but there are reasons for everything. If this were a Saturday game I could make a better case for the points given that the Bulldogs have Alabama next week ('Bama letdown after LSU game, perhaps, too many points) - but then there's Missouri. Bulldogs won at Auburn (no huge deal but it IS a road conference win) then the following week promptly lost to the Aggies on the road - but then there's the Tigers. The only sad part here is that the Tigers need two more wins to get to six, and the Bowl Game, and do have three of the last four at home. But then there were the Tigers. However, even at that - their only loss by more than a TD was to the Gators - and they ARE off a bye week and two road games - so, maybe, just maybe, they keep this game closer than some think. It'd be a tough pill to swallow - but it's not out of the question.