139 PITTSBURGH @ 140 VIRGINIA TECH
Take: PITTSBURGH +4
I’m expecting a tight battle Pittsburgh hits the ACC road to challenge Virginia Tech. I don’t see a great deal of separation between these two squads and there are some variables I like on the Panthers side.
First off, there’s the scheduling. The extra week of prep time for Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers could be a nice plus. Pitt was off a tough loss at the final gun on a very long Iowa field goal, and rather than having to roll right back with another tough road game, they enjoyed an extra week to recover and get ready for this battle.
Pittsburgh was on my most improved list heading into the season, and while the opening week escape against Youngstown State wasn’t impressive, I like what they’ve done in the two most recent games. I also very much like the fact that Pitt appears to have a staunch rush defense. One of the first things I look for when considering road underdog is that team’s ability to stop the run. It’s a key that has worked very well for me for that amounts to forever. While the philosophy utilized in college football has changed over the years, tough run defenses still work and I think that could be the key factor in deciding this game.
Virginia Tech is coming back home after losing off a second straight year to East Carolina. That was a non-league loss and it’s not what I’d call a disastrous defeat. But it also wasn’t good and now the Hokies have lost another of their key components. Kendall Fuller, one of the best cornerbacks in college football, is now gone for the season with a knee injury and he will be very tough to replace.
The Hokies have gotten some good work from backup QB Brenden Motley, who took over the reigns when Michael Brewer went down with an injury. He’s got some ability to run the football and isn’t the worst passer on the planet. But I’m not sure Motley is a QB who can win games just yet and he could have some problems with a Pitt defense that has a chance to be pretty good.
One alarming thing about the V-Tech loss at ECU was that they were up 14-0 before getting outscored 35-14. The Hokies managed to finally get to the end zone in the fourth quarter to make things interesting. But getting run over as they did by a somewhat ordinary Pirates squad wasn’t impressive.
As far as my numbers go, I made Virginia Tech -3.5, so it’s not really a strong take on the power ratings. But the other variables that carry weight for me are definitely pointing to Pitt. The Panthers fit a good situational angle, and as I already mentioned, they’ve got the good rushing defense and what I would consider a nice scheduling advantage.
I’ll also mention the weather, as it looks like Hurricane Joaquin could be an uninvited guest here. It’s tough to gauge whether that favors or hurts either team physically. But with fans perhaps staying away in droves because of the conditions, it makes some sense to conclude that the normal home field advantage the Hokies might expect to enjoy is a bit diminished.
Call this one an outright tossup, but with Pittsburgh still grabbing more than a field goal, I think a case can be constructed that the Panthers plus the points are worth a play today.
--
CFB Afternoon and Evening Best Bets loaded including my Game of Week!