Baseball continues to roll along, some days quietly, some days not - but in the end it'll be another huge season. We're firing a big boy Triple Dime Friday and we've got a sweet NFL Week One winner (we are 11-2 in the preseason to date) and we've already bet an SEC Triple Dime we simply love. Or - get all the work and a season sub. We'll be adding information on games we may not bet, just as we have in MLB, and ask our season-long clients if that helped.
The free play will be here: _______________.
254 KAN / 253 TENUNDER 42.0 Greek
Fish-Nationals: I'd love to find reasons not to take Washington, or TOO take Miami. Clearly the Nats mindset, something I've questioned all along, cannot be good. Two months ago people crowned them NL Easy Champs and now they're in real danger of playing golf in September. Just maybe Max's big pitch counts in the 1H are wearing on him, who knows, but he's certainly been more hittable, and Miami has seen just enough of him (and hit him in spots) to think the Nats may be the public disaster/parlay killer of the day.
Pirates-Rockies: Again, is it really wise to look at the Pirates ML here - against a team that's at least CAPABLE of hitting anyone at any time. The Pirates are in the dreaded first game back and get in late from Miami, while the Rockies rest. Jon Gray was lit up by the Mets, but New Yorks' been lighting up everyone. Colorado's pen has been beyond respectable lately. Liriano has thrown an awful lot of pitches the last two games, but Pittsburgh's pen has been great - and with Cole pitching Thursday they might not need much of it. I do like the under here.
Phillies-Padres: I just don't ever back the Padres unless it's against a LHP, which Nola is not.I know Kennedy has been pitching well of late but he still gives up a HR about every five innings (that's a lot) and he's not in Petco (pitcher friendly) and this park is more of a hitters' venue. What I don't like about Nola is his first 100 pitch count game last time out. Since both pens have been miserable - there's a reason this total is at 8 juiced to the over with two typically anemic offenses. Check the weather and the umpire.
Brewers-Reds: Cincinnati couldn't hit Grienke and one might think it's time to back them and fade Jungmann, but I just don't think I can. The Reds have allowed double-digit hits in 12 of their last 17 games (headed into Thursday) and are 16 games under .500 on the road. Brewers obviously rested, but how motivated can the Reds be to play ANYONE for the rest of the season. The Brewers have been giving up a ton of runs as well, and that total of 7.5 looks entirely too easy at this point. One would think Milwaukee may get most of those. But, Iglesias has settled in nicely and only allowed three hits in four straight games.
Cubs-Dodgers: I get Kerhsaw being -200 to many teams, but not to Hammel and the Cubs after flying back from Cincinnati and playing a game that saw them squander tons of chances to win by more than 1-0. The Cubs are going to lose at San Francisco Thursday - but without over thinking this one I would take the Cubs RL. All these -200 or more favorites just are not going to win.
Cardinals-Giants: Another game with both contenders and teams the tend to play good baseball, especially down the stretch. The Giants are a bit more nicked up and less rested (Cardinals had Thursday off), but Rosenthal is supposed to miss this series (personal) and the St. Louis pen has had some cracks lately. I'd have to wait for lineups (the Giants mainly because w/the rest day you expect the Cardinals to have everyone in). This will be Leake's first game in SF since coming over - what might concern me is that since this series will have a playoff atmosphere, Wacha has a but more experience im key situations. I do think St. Louis scores - so a good F5 bet without Rosenthal, perhaps.
Tigers-Jays: Natural assumption here is that the Jays will just be pissed about losing (finally) and pound the sh*t out of Detroit. Well, if anyone can get shelled at Rogers it's Dickey, and if anyone can do the shelling it's the Tigers. I know it's Boyd, who's a LHP and the Jays murder left handed pitching, AND the kid hasn't been great in his limited road starts, but I', still not laying -200 or more and never laying -1.5 with a home team who may not get the last at bat. Just a rule of mine. This game may go over 9.5 - but needing ten runs to win a bet might be a tough one to swallow. For me.
Angels-Indians: Only one team really, really cares here, and that's starting to matter more every day. We typically don't take the Indians against LHP, however, there may be value. He hadn't allowed more than one ER in quite some time and the Angels clearly aren't hitting right now. The problem with Heaney is that he's not generally going to pitch deep so it's likely that the LAA pen will be called on, and that's not been a good thing lately. Hard to see where the runs are going to come from and the Indians may win this one late.
Houston-Twins: I really wish the Twins weren't flying back from Tampa while Houston rested, because I do love the Twins at home against left handed pitching. Gibson is more than adequate here.
Royals-Rays: It'll be hard not to take the Rays at home at "pick the winner" with Ramirez. That may be a great first five inning bet since there is a huge advantage in the back in with Kansas City.
Mets-Red Sox: Let's not forget that Boston gets no DH here so I do wonder how they score, at least early. Owens's first real "big stage" type game, although he did open in Yankee Stadium. The issue is there was no real scouting report then, so I can't, as much as I'd like to, make a case for Boston unless there's uber revenge from someone still in the organization from 1986.
A's-D-Backs: Sonny Gray at -130 almost looks to easy, but let's not forget that unless he's comfortably ahead he has to bat three times - so that's another F5 game perhaps, and I can make a case for the A's only because they're in a smaller park and Anderson is a fly ball pitcher. The problem is that the A's pen has regressed back to where it was the 1H of the season, so it really is all on Gray, IMO - perhaps the F5 under as well.
Seattle-Chicago: This one may come down to who wants to play/pitch. And totally, for me, depends on who shows up Thursday night. I tend to like Chicago better against right handed pitching, Walker's a fly ball pitcher NOT in Seattle (a pitchers' park) on Friday. I'd like the over here if there weren't supposed to be a stiff breeze blowing in. We'll see what happens.