Good stuff Spartan, thanks for this.
I'm on the other side with Bama. I think they are overdue for a down year, possibly 4 if not more losses (lose to Ole Miss, Georgia, Arkansas, Auburn and possibly a surprise lose to A&M, Tenn, LSU, or Miss St). I don't see this call as going with popular opinion either. Most folks (in the media) are predicting them to win the SEC and go to the playoff again.
It's a gamble no doubt as they are SUPPOSE to be ever present #1 team in the country, they get the best recruits, and Saban is a great coach. But you still have to put it all together and make it gel and I think this is a year where they struggle to get that done. Getting back to the 16th best scoring offense at 36.9ppg with no clear QB, OL turnover, Cooper and TJ Yeldon gone, and Kiffin at OC is a tall order. And I think time has past when you could be so-so on offense and get it done in the SEC or nationally with strong defense alone.
Your Mizzou call is a tough one too, I think they may struggle with some of the same issues as Bama but on defense. I see where you coming from thinking Mauk provides stability when most of the SEC is searching for a QB to emerge but I'm not sold he is enough of a talent to overcome the turnover of WR and the decline of their D. Much respect to them and Pinkel but to pull it off 3yrs in a year is another tall order.
Not onboard the Tennessee bandwagon though.
Either way I think it's wise to evaluate pre-season and make a call on these teams and then watch carefully to see if your evaluation is playing out or not and adjust as necessary. Looking forward to more great posts, thanks again.