The 1973 Movie "The Sting" illustrated how dangerous it is to make any bet "To WIN" Typically, it is best to wager "to place" not to win, and in Futures wagering, that means place bets on teams to go 'over' or 'under' their season wins.
Let's take a look at MLB to illustrate this. Who have been the big surprises in the National League? The Mets, the Cubs, The Pirates, and maybe Arizona. All four are sailing over their season wins bets. Don't you wish you had tickets on these teams at great odds? Maybe not! Let's look at their current odds according to Teamrankings.com
1. Mets 6.8% (so at 15-1 you barely have value).
2. Cubs 3.7% (so at 25-1 you barely have value)
3. Pirates 7.2% (again, you need 15-1)
4. Arizona .3% (300-1 is stil no good)
Even the Cards only have a 16% chance, so you need 7-1 to make that worth a look.
You get the idea, even if you correctly call 5 teams to sail over their season win totals, you are still in big trouble in the futures market if you have tickets on these 5 teams.
The same is really true in the NFL. MAYBE you can get a great bet here and there, but they are few and far between (in 2015 the example would be those we got Toronto right after they upgraded post all star break).
You get the idea. Bet the under valued teams 'over' their season wins. However, you are MUCH better off ignoring the futures odds.
On the handicapping front, 12-2 in the preseason, and we FIRE on our 3* AFC Season Win OVER this week, package is UP. This team won't win the SB, but they WILL go over their season win total!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY