Yes, Friday, I like to think that our bets are reasonably well thought-out. And our NFL and/or CFB packages are here. The free MLB play will be when the MLB play is - tomorrow at some point. Might have a fat MLB game tomorrow, and might not - it depends. Now, back to regularly scheduled Thursday programming. We've got an MLB Triple Dime and Free NFL on Friday.
Titans-Falcons: In 11 practices Mariota hasn't thrown a pick in camp, and although Wisenhunt hasn't publicly said how much he'll play, it expected to be a series or two. Handicapping these early games is usually about the second (and sometimes third) string quarterbacks. Not sure I like Mettenberger for the simple reason that he can't move well (certainly not like Mariota) and won't have the A team in front of him. I do like the Titans backs - elusive and fast, which matters much more in the second half - because as things break down the quicker/more elusive backs can improvise against the B/C talent they'll play against, not unlike college. The Titans best chance of scoring may come if and when Whitehurst sees the field - based on experience alone. You've got Dan Quinn's first game as the Falcons coach - he came over from Seattle as the architect of that defense, and Atlanta spent most of it's money trying to shore theirs' up - so that will clearly be a point of emphasis all night. Wisenhunt's preseason record was awful (10-19) with the Cardinals - some of that perhaps because they just didn't have the talent they do now, and Tennessee's franchise could use the win as much as the Falcons. I do like T Yates and Renfree is fairly disciplined (go figure, he played at Duke) - so, with all that - I like the Titans to score early because the Falcons defense just cannot turn it around THAT quickly (and I like Mariota in broken plays) and I like Atlanta to win it late. They've just got better players and a deeper roster. Mike Smith was 9-19 in preseason games - so don't factor that in if you're looking at how the Falcons have been in NFLX.
Carolina-Buffalo: All the talk about the Bills and the new Rex Ryan - and much of it I buy. Their defense didn't suck before he got there - they won't now. Rex was about a .500 preseason coach (well, he still is - albeit slightly under) and at home one would think they'd at least start fast. Sammy Watkins is all about winning even playing vanilla (from the Bills website), which can be contagious to other players. One thing I do like about Buffalo here is that Tyrod Taylor and Manuel can both move real well, and that's served us well in previous exhibition games - when things break down, and they will - the athletes tend to shine - or at least make something out of nothing. Rivera is 8-8 in the preseason, and honestly winning shouldn't be as important to the Panthers at this point as evaluation is. Their backup QB's - Derek Anderson is just bad - and I would be far more fearful of Joe Webb running around in the fourth quarter, although I have no looked at the rotation yet. The Panthers will play a couple of rookie linebackers, Mayo and Thompson - a fair bit - and that could work either way. Against Manuel and Taylor, that could be a disadvantage. Like the Bills here, and there are enough playmakers to think this might be one of those games that goes over.
Giants-Bengals: New York needs far more to find some depth than it does to win - at least as compared to the Bengals, and one would think that Lewis is perhaps on the hot seat even with Bengals ownership, which is hard to do. Coughlin has actually been a decent preseason coach (24-21 including the stint in Jacksonville) - Spagnuolo back coaching the defense after his failed attempt at being a head coach. Nassib and Stanzi are the Giants backups - Nassib obviously a bit more experience, but still very "inexperienced" and I might worry about him trying to do TOO much (he did that at Syracuse on occasion). Perhaps Eli gets Beckham one long score early - Giants to score first, perhaps. These two teams scrimmaged each other this week (not uncommon) and it has been my experience that when that happens the actual game tends to have more points early than a typical exhibition game. AJ McCarron is probably out Friday after an early-week injury - so it's Josh Johnson (one who should do well against B teams) and Kieth Wenning. I do like Wenning's upside, but he did play at Ball State and those things matter early in an NFL QB's career. It was Ball State, and nothing against the MAC - but in NFLX we'll take a QB who played the toughest competition over one that thrived against mediocrity. I still don't expect the Bengals to do a whole lot on offense. On offense (after you get past the "A"'s and "resting" starters, their super young on the O-line. Defensively they are very experienced up front til you get to the "4"s - who could make Ricky Stanzi look better than he might otherwise be - and also because he DID play at Iowa hence has actually seen a 325 pound defensive lineman that can run. Maybe some unexpected points here - tough call on the side but I'd have to digress to taking the +3 if Wenning is going to play more than Johnson, and the other way around if Johnson gets the bulk of the work.
Jacksonville-Pittsburgh: The inclination would be to take the Steelers since it's their second exhibition game - but let's not forget that the first game was only five nights prior - not that there would ever be a "plan" for this game, but barely enough time to fix mistakes from the first game. Tomlin has been a great preseason coach (20-13) - Bradley is 2-6 but I don't think you can take much from a talentless team in the preseason. Bradley came from the Seahawks and Pete Carroll - who pretty much try to win every game they play, so I wouldn't dismiss Jacksonville here. They really need to make some sort of impression here or very soon they won't be in Jacksonville - and honestly, my guess is that there will be as many if not more fans in EverBank Field that are wearing black and gold, not black and teal. The Jaguars do have experience backups after Bortles - and perhaps the second year for Bortles they'll be less pressure and the game slows down. Remember what I said about Wenning playing at Ball State - Bortles played at Central Florida - so there's that, too - no competition per se when it comes to even the B team in the NFL. And they do have some talented RB's, or at least probably so, with TJ Yeldon, but beyond that they've got Toby Gerhart (you remember, Stanford) and Dennard Robinson (yes, the little fast guys that can do well when things break down). That's something that would benefit a Taj Boyd more than a Landry Jones. Might be a point or two scored here, actually - and give me - I don't know yet, but it won't be the Steelers. Maybe Steelers 1H and Jags 2H - we'll see.
I don't have time for the other games - this took longer than it should have - but the early season ones always do. In every sport.