Kevin Gausman struggled early and the Orioles could never claw all the way back as the Wednesday free play went down. I’m going back to the same well today, though, as I see value at a price that appears a bit inflated to me.
ORIOLES (Jimenez) @ YANKEES (Tanaka)
Take: ORIOLES +140
There’s no question the Yankees rate the chalk role in this series finale. But beating baseball is an exercise in garnering value, which often means being willing to take an underdog even when you don’t think they’re even 50/50 to win the game. This clash is a good example of what I mean.
I make the Yankees roughly -130 to win today’s game. They’re clearly in better form and while it’s close, I would have to give Tanaka and edge over Jimenez on the starting pitcher front. But the line is considerably higher than that, which immediately had me considering the underdog Orioles today.
Aside from what I believe to be an inflated number, there are a couple other aspects here that I’ll add to the mix. The Yankees could be a bit short in the bullpen today. With Andrew Miller recently off the DL and having pitched both Tuesday and Wednesday, it’s doubtful Joe Girardi will use him today. Delia Betances is also off back to back appearances, although his pitch count on Wednesday was very minimal, so he’s probably available. Nevertheless, the fact the O’Day/Britton combo is fresh as a daisy, so if this is close late I see an advantage for Baltimore.
The Orioles should also be treating this as their biggest game of the season to date. They’re on the verge of getting blown out of the AL East race and a wring way sweep here would be devastating to their hopes of a second straight divisional crown. It’s hard to call a game in late July a must win, but this one is pretty to close to being exactly that for the Birds.
One other variable is that Ubaldo Jimenez will be my highest rated underdog pitcher on Thursday. That’s really a simple angle, but it’s also not the worst blind follow in the world. I have a rating for each starting pitcher and among all the underdogs on the slate today, Jimenez wins the award as the top dog.
All that said, it’s still a tough play as again, the Yankees definitely merit being favored here. But taking +140 is garnering me roughly 20 cents value based on the number I came up with, so I’ll tab the Orioles for today’s free play.