Houston Texans OVER 8.5 (-125)
It's important for me to be very methodical when doing these. People tend to rush to conclusions based on draft picks, free agents coming and going, coaching changes, and GENERAL strength of schedule. The fact of the matter is that most draft picks that aren't first round starting QB's probably have very little overall effect - especially early.
Houston does not have a thoroughbred under center, but Hoyer is above average in intelligence, which is well over half the battle. Mallet is at least serviceable and both of them spent considerable time in New England learning behind one of the best - air pressure not withstanding. Houston has, on paper, the third easiest schedule based on last years' W/L record, and those SOS's have proven to be FAIRLY accurate - but there's much more. It's not necessarily WHO you play but WHEN. For example, even playing Jacksonville in September can be a challenge for some teams simply because it's likely to be seriously hot and humid - and that's especially true for a team coming from a dome. The little things matter.
Houstons' defense will keep them in most every game. Of course there's J.J. Watt - but let's not forget about Clowney missing most of last season - assuming he can stay healthy. Throw in Vince Wilfork in the middle and there's little doubt that if they're at all healthy up front there are few teams that won't be challenged to move the ball. They've got experience in the defensive backfield with Joseph and Jackson - hence can bring on first-round pick Kevin Johnson at his own pace.
The schedule:
Opening at home is ALWAYS a good thing - here against the Chiefs. Arguable the Chiefs are improving under Reid, but they still don't appear to have a dynamic offense - so I'll give the Texans this one. They're slightly favored.
Then at Carolina - who will be playing THEIR home opener. They may be a bit full of themselves because in week one they're in Jacksonville, who they will either beat badly (overconfident next week) or at the very least have some fatigue from playing in the heat, especially early when "game shape" may not be what is could be. Plus, the Panther have their first division game the following week against the Saints. Houston won't get blown out here.
Week three back home against Tampa Bay. Tons of respect for Lovie Smith and perhaps some people in Chicago do, too. However, the Texans defense playing against Winston who just played IN New Orleans will be too much. Give this one to Houston.
Fourth week they travel to Atlanta, which is a short plane ride and if you look at where they've been in the first month, there's not a lot of heavy travel involved. The Falcons are what they are. Better than their record but not as good as the expectations. They'll win a few most think they won't and lose a few they shouldn't. History does repeat itself, and yes, they drafted a ton of defensive players but that's a more longer term return, usually. And Dan Quinn certainly has a track record of great defenses, both at Seattle and the University of Florida. But, IMO he can't make them the Seahawks with younger player in a few short games. And Kyle Shanahan is just not a great offensive coordinator IMO. If he didn't have RGIII he might have been unemployed sooner. And let's not forget he spent time in Houston - so even tho is was six years ago there are people that have a familiarity. Anyhow, Houston CAN win this game, too. The Falcons will open on a Monday night against the Eagles (Philadelphia boatrace because the Falcons young defense won't be in the right places) and then they're at the Giants and the Cowboys, so all three of those will be higher profile games. Mental lapse in week four.
Back home against the Colts, which should be a great game, one way or the other. Huge early division matchup and the Texans have no real look ahead as they play in Jacksonville the following week.
Jacksonville always seems to play them tough, so there is no reason to think that Houston will walk over the Jags, but again, it's still hot in Florida and we've got a dome team playing outdoors. However, Houston should win, if for no other reason than the fact that the Jaguars will have just played three straight road games. At New England, Indianapolis, and the Bucs. I do like Bradley and their coaching staff, but by now they're tired of travelling and now chasing Jameis Winston around, more than likely.
At Miami could be a tough game since I do expect the Dolphins to be improved, but perhaps not to the level some do. IMO Tannehill may have maxed out his potential. I could be wrong, Fish fans, but as a New England fan I've seen enough of him to know where the limit probably is. And, it's a TOUGH spot for the Fish because they were in Tennessee the week prior and play New England the following week, MORE importantly on that Thursday night. So, another winnable game for the Texans.
Back home to play the Titans. Tennessee will have played FOUR STRAIGHT home games before this contest - and I suppose Mariotta could give them an issue since he may be settling in better by this point - and although I am not a fan of Wisenhunt as a head coach, he does have **** Lebeau so he can clearly spend his time on the offense. They (the Titans) are going to be a ridiculously young team, so road games could be an issue. Either way, the Texans have a BYE the following week so there will be zero excuses to lose this game.
So, we've had our bye and we head up to Cincinnati. Remember when I said WHEN you play a team is just as important as where - well, we would rather play in Ohio in the middle of November than somewhere between Christmas and New Years. IF the Bengals play a reasonable game, they could win just based on the situation. They will have been at home to the Browns the prior week and play a non-conference game at Arizona the following week. Still, a conference game that MAY mean more to the Texans than the Bengals. I do not like the Bengals - I am sorry Cincinnati fans, you deserve better. Both ownership and coach. IMO Lewis is good for two losses.
The next two weeks the Texans are home to the Jets and the Saints. For the Jets it's a sandwich game between two home games against Division rivals New England and Miami. I don't know what Todd Bowles is going to bring, and Chan Gailey surely doesn't have the weapons he had in Dallas. This could be the last game Geno Smith starts. Houston wins, and the following week the Saints come marching in. New Orleans HAS to be better, but what they HAVE lost is their intimidation factor, IMO. I always like to fade New Orleans on grass and although NRG Stadium is a retractable dome, it's grass. The Saints will be coming off a bye week - and unless they've been hitting on all cylinders to this point that could be a bad thing for a "timing" based offense. Plus, we KNOW Houston can bring some pressure, again, assuming Wilfork and Clowney are healthy. The Saint have a division game (two straight, actually) against the Panthers the following week, so a Houston win here wouldn't be a surprise.
Uh oh - then Houston travels to Buffalo, and although I am neither a Ryan fan or a Manuel fan (I think E sucks, actually - and both Taylor and Cassel are far better options), Buffalo will be a tough place to play, and they do have talent aside from a signal caller. However, there's a really odd scheduling quirk here. The Bills will have played three straight road games prior to this game (there is a bye in there) - AT the Jets (Ryan's old team, duh) and AT New England (the team Ryan wants to beat more than anyone) an THEN at Kansas City. Cool, a break against Houston before we play two MORE road games, at Philadelphia and at Washington. Anything could happen here, but AGAIN, it's still December 6th and not December 27th which could make a HUGE difference.
Okay. The Texans come home to play - the Patriots. Let me see, isn't that Vince Wolforks' old team, Hoyer and Mallets' old team. Why yes, it is. It is a decent scheduling spot for New England - but even as a die hard Patriots fan who has seen every play of every game for more years than I will admit to - they're in trouble and let me see, didn't Bill O'Brien and Romeo Crennel have something to do with New England at one time - why yes, they most certainly did. This could be the signature win the Texans are looking for. No joke. If they play now it would be a bigger bet for me than the Astros were last night.
Now, after beating New England they'll have a serious emotional hangover and have to travel to Indianapolis. Well, they at least don't have to deal with the elements, but if they win when they play the Colts at home early, they'll probably get beat here. I have to allow them one loss. Maybe not ATS and really, that's all I care about. Plus, by now we've most likely won our bet and can perhaps have a hedge opportunity because we have let the book hold our money for a very long time.
Another road game the next to last week at Tennessee. Obviously by now there will be no surprises, however, the Titans should be seriously out of the playoff picture at this point, and either play loose with nothing to lose and let Mariottta do his thing, or maybe they have been so bad they're polishing the golf clubs. Probably a close game.
The final week at home to Jacksonville, and although I DO think the Jaguar will be improved - they probably won't want to fly to Houston to play this game, especially when it will matter to the Texans as it relates to the playoffs. PLAYOFFS. Yes, Jim Mora, it could happen.
So, without injuries and assuming all things stay the same (they NEVER do) - the Texans are my best season win total. So far.